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Vandalia, Missouri: Violent Crime Trends and Population Dynamics
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Vandalia, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the past decade, this small city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates against a backdrop of changing population dynamics. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of violent crimes varied significantly, peaking at 15 incidents in 2013 and dropping to just 1 incident in 2019, representing a 93.3% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 4,415 in 2010 to 4,676 in 2019, a 5.9% increase, before declining to 3,817 by 2022.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently at zero throughout the reported period from 2010 to 2019. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population fluctuations. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently stayed at 0, and the city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has been 0% throughout this time. This consistent absence of murders suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of the most severe form of violent crime.
Rape incidents have shown more variability. The city saw no reported rapes in 2010 and 2011, but experienced a peak of 5 cases in 2013, representing 0.28% of the state's total. This spike translates to a rate of 1.13 rapes per 1,000 people in 2013. By 2019, reported rapes had decreased to 0, showing a complete reduction from the 2013 peak. The fluctuation in rape cases, particularly the 2013 spike, warrants attention as it represented a significant deviation from the norm for this small community.
Robbery trends in Vandalia have been minimal. The city reported no robberies for most years, with the exception of 2014 when there was 1 incident, accounting for 0.02% of the state's robberies that year. This single incident resulted in a rate of 0.22 robberies per 1,000 people in 2014. The overall low incidence of robbery suggests that property-related violent crime is not a significant concern in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated considerably, from a low of 1 in 2019 to a high of 10 in 2013. The rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2013 at 2.26 and fell to 0.21 in 2019. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures varied, reaching 0.07% in 2013 and dropping to 0.01% in 2019. These fluctuations suggest changing dynamics in interpersonal violence within the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 1,967 per square mile in 2010 to 2,084 in 2019, overall violent crime incidents decreased. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest causation, as evidenced by the crime spike in 2013 despite a relatively stable population density.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Vandalia may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain relatively low over the next five years (up to 2029). The city might experience between 1 to 7 violent crime incidents annually, with aggravated assault potentially remaining the most common form of violent crime.
In summary, Vandalia has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade, particularly notable in the sharp decrease from 2013 to 2019. The absence of murders, low robbery rates, and the recent decline in aggravated assaults paint a picture of a community that has made strides in improving public safety. However, the fluctuations in rape and aggravated assault cases highlight the need for continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies. As Vandalia moves forward, maintaining these low crime rates while addressing the underlying factors contributing to the occasional spikes will be crucial for ensuring the long-term safety and well-being of its residents.
