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Utica, Missouri: Rising Home Values and Ownership Rates Defy Interest Rate Trends
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Utica, Missouri, is a small community that has experienced notable demographic shifts and housing market changes over the past decade. The town has seen fluctuations in homeownership rates, with a general trend towards increased owner-occupancy. Average home prices have shown an upward trajectory, while average rent prices have experienced some volatility.
The homeownership rate in Utica has seen an overall increase from 2013 to 2022. In 2013, the owner-occupancy rate was 90%, which rose to 93% by 2022. This increase in homeownership coincided with a significant rise in average home prices. In 2013, the average home price was $63,173, which steadily increased to $89,362 by 2022, representing a substantial 41.5% increase over nine years. This trend suggests that despite rising home prices, more residents were able to transition into homeownership.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Utica shows an interesting pattern. From 2013 to 2015, as interest rates remained low (0.11% to 0.13%), homeownership rates slightly decreased from 90% to 85%. However, as interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2016 onwards, homeownership rates in Utica actually increased, reaching 93% in 2022 when the federal interest rate was 1.68%. This trend contradicts the typical expectation that lower interest rates encourage homeownership, suggesting that other local factors may have had a stronger influence on homeownership decisions in Utica.
Renter percentages in Utica have generally decreased as average rent prices fluctuated. In 2014, when average rent data first became available, 14% of residents were renters, and the average rent was $575. By 2022, the renter percentage had dropped to 7%, while the average rent decreased to $495. This decrease in both renter percentage and average rent occurred despite population fluctuations, with the population decreasing from 605 in 2014 to 355 in 2022. This trend suggests that as the population decreased, the demand for rentals may have decreased as well, leading to lower average rents and a smaller proportion of renters in the community.
In 2023 and 2024, the average home prices in Utica continued to rise, reaching $92,557 in 2023 and $94,654 in 2024. This represents a 3.5% increase from 2022 to 2023 and a further 2.3% increase from 2023 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates increased significantly to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, marking a substantial rise from the 1.68% rate in 2022.
Looking ahead, based on the historical trends and recent data, we can forecast the following 5-year trends for Utica: 1. Average home prices are likely to continue their upward trajectory, potentially reaching around $105,000 to $110,000 by 2029. 2. Average rent prices may stabilize or show modest increases, potentially reaching $550 to $600 by 2029, assuming the population stabilizes or begins to grow again.
In summary, Utica has experienced a trend towards increased homeownership despite rising home prices. The community has shown resilience in maintaining high homeownership rates even as federal interest rates have increased. The rental market has seen a decrease in both the percentage of renters and average rent prices, likely influenced by population decline. Moving forward, the housing market in Utica is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with potential for further increases in both home prices and rent prices.
