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Upper Falls: Rising Home Values Amidst Stable Ownership in Rochester's Dynamic Neighborhood
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Loading Content...
Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Upper Falls, a neighborhood in Rochester, New York, is known for its diverse community and rich history. Over the past decade, this area has experienced notable changes in its housing market, reflecting broader economic trends and local dynamics. The homeownership rate in Upper Falls has remained relatively stable, ranging from 21-22% between 2013 and 2022. However, this stability contrasts with significant changes in average home prices. In 2013, the average home price was $33,964, with a 20% homeownership rate. By 2022, the average home price had more than doubled to $72,628, while the homeownership rate stood at 21%. This indicates that despite substantial appreciation in home values, the proportion of homeowners in the neighborhood did not increase significantly.
Federal interest rates have influenced homeownership trends in Upper Falls. In 2013, when interest rates were low at 0.11%, the homeownership rate was 20%. As interest rates rose to 1.83% in 2018, the homeownership rate increased slightly to 22%. This aligns with the general trend of lower interest rates encouraging homeownership due to more affordable financing options. However, the relationship is not always straightforward, as other factors such as local economic conditions and housing supply also affect homeownership rates.
Renter percentages in Upper Falls have consistently been high, ranging from 77% to 80% between 2013 and 2022. This high proportion of renters is reflected in the trends of average rent prices. In 2013, the average rent was $723, increasing steadily to $758 by 2022, a 4.8% rise over nine years. Interestingly, despite the population decreasing from 10,752 in 2013 to 9,978 in 2022, rent prices continued to rise, suggesting a potential mismatch between housing supply and demand in the rental market.
Recent data shows that the average home price in Upper Falls decreased slightly from $72,628 in 2022 to $69,456 in 2023, a 4.4% decline. However, in 2024, prices rebounded to $75,738, marking a 9.0% increase from 2023. This recovery occurred despite federal interest rates rising from 5.02% in 2023 to 5.33% in 2024, indicating strong local market factors influencing home prices.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in Upper Falls will continue to appreciate, albeit at a more moderate pace. Based on historical data and current market conditions, we project average home prices could reach approximately $85,000 to $90,000 by 2029. For average rent prices, the forecast suggests a continued upward trend, potentially reaching $850 to $900 per month by 2029, assuming current economic conditions and housing policies remain relatively stable.
In summary, Upper Falls has demonstrated resilience in its housing market over the past decade. Despite significant increases in average home prices, homeownership rates have remained relatively stable, while the rental market has seen steady growth in prices. The neighborhood's ability to maintain high occupancy rates, even with a declining population, suggests a strong demand for housing in the area. As we look to the future, both the ownership and rental markets in Upper Falls are poised for continued growth, reflecting the neighborhood's enduring appeal and the broader economic trends affecting urban housing markets.
