Robbery has been the most consistent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 11 robberies (0.311 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.08% of the state's total. The number fluctuated over the years, reaching a low of 4 in 2014 (0.109 per 1,000 people, 0.04% of state total) and a high of 9 in 2020 (0.236 per 1,000 people, 0.14% of state total). By 2022, robberies had decreased to 4 (0.104 per 1,000 people, 0.07% of state total), showing a general downward trend over the 12-year period.

Aggravated assault cases have shown an upward trend in recent years. In 2010, there were 6 cases (0.169 per 1,000 people), representing 0.05% of the state's total. The number dropped to zero in 2014 but has since increased. In 2022, there were 8 aggravated assaults (0.207 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.05% of the state's total. This recent uptick, while concerning, still represents a relatively low rate compared to many other cities.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 3,615 per square mile in 2010 to 3,944 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the city's racial diversity and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 89% in 2013 to 84% in 2022, with corresponding increases in Asian, Hispanic, and multiracial populations, the overall violent crime rate fluctuated but generally trended downward.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued overall decline in violent crime rates, with potential fluctuations in specific categories. Robberies are likely to remain the most consistent form of violent crime, potentially stabilizing around 5-6 incidents per year. Aggravated assaults may continue their recent upward trend, possibly reaching 10-12 cases annually by 2029. Murder and rape rates are expected to remain low, with occasional isolated incidents rather than consistent occurrences.

In summary, Upper Arlington has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade, despite population growth. The city's evolving demographics and increasing density have not led to an increase in violent crime, suggesting effective law enforcement and community engagement strategies. While recent upticks in aggravated assaults warrant attention, the overall violent crime picture remains favorable compared to many urban areas. As the city continues to grow and diversify, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for preserving its reputation as a safe and desirable place to live.