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University Row: Rising Home Values and Changing Ownership Patterns in Dayton's Dynamic Neighborhood
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
University Row, a neighborhood in Dayton, Ohio, has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates and housing prices over the past decade. Known for its proximity to educational institutions, the area has seen a general trend of increasing average home prices, particularly since 2018, despite fluctuations in homeownership rates. The homeownership rate in University Row has shown volatility between 2013 and 2022, starting at 67% in 2013, peaking at 76% in 2014, dropping to 59% in 2019, and rebounding to 73% in 2022. Concurrently, average home prices have demonstrated a consistent upward trend since 2018, with the average price rising from $67,079 in 2018 to $120,778 in 2022, marking an impressive 80% increase over four years.
Federal interest rates have played a role in homeownership trends in University Row. In 2013, when the interest rate was 0.11%, the homeownership rate was 67%. As interest rates remained low through 2020 (0.38%), homeownership rates fluctuated but generally remained above 70%. The slight increase in interest rates to 1.68% in 2022 coincided with a homeownership rate of 73%, suggesting that moderate interest rates can still support high levels of homeownership.
Renter percentages in University Row have fluctuated inversely to homeownership rates. In 2013, the renter percentage was 33%, which decreased to 24% in 2014. It then rose to 40% in 2019 before falling back to 27% in 2022. Average rent prices have shown some variability but no clear long-term trend. In 2013, the average rent was $1,253, which decreased to $854 in 2015. It then increased to $1,030 in 2019 before dropping again to $858 in 2022. These fluctuations in rent prices and renter percentages may be influenced by changes in the neighborhood's population, which decreased from 1,077 in 2013 to 895 in 2022.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in University Row was $115,294 in 2023 and increased to $118,393 in 2024. This represents a 2.7% increase in average home prices over the past year. Simultaneously, federal interest rates rose from 5.02% in 2023 to 5.33% in 2024, indicating a tightening monetary policy environment.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in University Row will continue to rise, albeit at a more moderate pace. Given the recent increases in interest rates, we expect the rate of price appreciation to slow down compared to the rapid growth seen between 2018 and 2022. Average home prices could potentially reach around $135,000 to $140,000 by 2029. For average rent prices, we predict a slight upward trend, potentially reaching $950 to $1,000 per month by 2029, assuming stable economic conditions and continued demand for rental properties in the area.
In summary, University Row has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates and housing prices over the past decade. The neighborhood has seen a general trend of increasing average home prices, particularly since 2018, despite fluctuations in homeownership rates. Rent prices have remained relatively stable with some variations. The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates has been notable, with low interest rates generally supporting higher homeownership levels. Looking forward, we anticipate continued but more moderate growth in both average home prices and rent prices in University Row over the next five years.
