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Tucson Park West No.1: Homeownership Surge Amidst Rising Values
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Tucson Park West No.1 is a vibrant neighborhood located in Tucson, Arizona. This community has experienced significant fluctuations in homeownership rates and housing prices over the past decade. The neighborhood has seen a general trend of increasing average home prices, while ownership percentages have shown notable variability. Average rent prices have also demonstrated an upward trajectory, although with some fluctuations.
The relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices in Tucson Park West No.1 has been dynamic. In 2013, the homeownership rate was 21%, with an average home price of $144,547. By 2022, the homeownership rate had increased to 43%, while the average home price rose to $324,361. This represents a significant 105% increase in average home prices over this period. However, the correlation between homeownership rates and home prices is not always straightforward. For instance, in 2020, when the homeownership rate peaked at 53%, the average home price was $231,194, lower than subsequent years with lower homeownership rates.
Federal interest rates have played a role in homeownership trends in the neighborhood. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were historically low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.4%), homeownership rates fluctuated between 18% and 24%. As interest rates began to rise from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), homeownership rates showed a gradual increase, reaching 27% in 2019. The most dramatic shift occurred in 2020 when interest rates dropped to 0.38%, coinciding with a sharp increase in homeownership to 53%. This trend continued into 2021 with a 58% homeownership rate and a low 0.08% interest rate.
Renter percentages and average rent prices have also shown interesting trends. In 2013, 79% of the neighborhood was renter-occupied, with an average rent of $614. Despite fluctuations in the renter population, average rent prices generally increased. By 2022, the renter percentage had decreased to 57%, but the average rent had risen to $725, an 18% increase from 2013. Notably, there was a significant spike in average rent in 2016 to $917, despite a renter percentage of 80%, suggesting factors beyond occupancy rates influence rent prices.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Tucson Park West No.1 was $321,186 in 2023, showing a slight decrease from 2022. However, in 2024, the average home price has rebounded to $332,342, indicating continued growth in the real estate market. This growth is occurring despite the relatively high federal interest rate of 5.33% in 2024, which might typically be expected to dampen home buying activity.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in Tucson Park West No.1 will continue to rise, albeit at a more moderate pace. The neighborhood's desirability and the overall trend of increasing home values suggest that prices could reach approximately $380,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, potentially reaching around $800 per month in the same timeframe, reflecting the ongoing demand for rental properties in the area.
In summary, Tucson Park West No.1 has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. The neighborhood has seen a general trend of increasing homeownership rates, rising average home prices, and growing average rents. The interplay between federal interest rates, homeownership, and housing prices has been complex, with low interest rates often, but not always, corresponding to higher homeownership rates. The recent data for 2023 and 2024 suggests that the neighborhood's real estate market remains robust, even in the face of higher interest rates. As we look to the future, the trends indicate continued growth in both home values and rental prices, reflecting the ongoing attractiveness of this Tucson neighborhood.
