Motor vehicle theft trends showed more fluctuation but ultimately decreased. In 2010, there were 145 incidents, which declined to 112 in 2022, a 22.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.9 to 2.2. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased significantly from 0.94% in 2010 to 0.54% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvements in this area outpaced the state average.

Arson cases in the city showed considerable volatility. From 10 incidents in 2010, arson cases peaked at 28 in 2020 before decreasing to 8 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 0.2 in 2010 to 0.56 in 2020, then down to 0.16 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons varied widely, from 1.75% in 2010 to a high of 5.21% in 2020, before settling at 1.72% in 2022. This volatility suggests that arson may be influenced by specific events or conditions rather than following broader crime trends.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $48,268 in 2013 to $55,247 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 1,985 to 1,679. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the slight decrease in the white population percentage (from 68% in 2013 to 63% in 2022) and the overall reduction in property crimes, potentially indicating changing demographics influencing crime patterns.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 200-220 incidents annually, larceny-thefts may settle in the range of 1,200-1,300 cases per year, and motor vehicle thefts could fluctuate between 100-120 incidents annually. Arson cases are more difficult to predict due to their volatility but may average around 10-12 incidents per year.

In summary, Troy has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and motor vehicle theft. The city's improvements often outpaced statewide trends, suggesting effective local strategies. The correlation between rising median incomes and falling crime rates highlights the potential impact of economic factors on public safety. As Troy continues to evolve, maintaining focus on economic development and community-based crime prevention strategies could further enhance these positive trends in property crime reduction.