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Troy, Illinois: Stable Violent Crime Trends Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Troy, Illinois, a small urban area with a population of 15,160 as of 2022, has experienced both fluctuations in violent crime rates and steady population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes remained unchanged at 12 incidents, while the population grew by 7.5% from 14,108 to 15,160 during the same period.
Murder rates in Troy have remained exceptionally low, with only two recorded incidents over the 12-year period - one in 2013 and another in 2022. This translates to a murder rate of 0.07 per 1,000 people in both years, showing no significant change despite population growth. The percentage of state murders attributed to Troy increased from 0% in most years to 0.13% in 2022, indicating a slight rise in the city's contribution to state-wide murder statistics, albeit from a very low base.
Rape incidents have shown more variation over time. The number of reported rapes increased from 6 in 2010 to 12 in 2020, before decreasing to 3 in 2022. This translates to a rate of 0.43 per 1,000 people in 2010, peaking at 0.81 per 1,000 in 2020, and dropping to 0.20 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide rape statistics fluctuated, ranging from 0.03% in 2014 and 2015 to 0.35% in 2010 and 2020, before settling at 0.09% in 2022. This suggests that while rape incidents have varied, they have generally remained a small fraction of state-wide occurrences.
Robbery rates in the city have remained low and sporadic. There were no reported robberies in most years, with isolated incidents in 2014, 2015, 2017, 2020, and 2022. The highest number of robberies (2) occurred in 2017, equating to 0.14 per 1,000 people. In 2022, there was 1 robbery, or 0.07 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state-wide robbery statistics has consistently been minimal, never exceeding 0.01% when robberies did occur.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated from 6 in 2010 to a peak of 13 in 2015, before decreasing to 7 in 2022. This translates to a rate of 0.43 per 1,000 people in 2010, 0.91 per 1,000 in 2015, and 0.46 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide aggravated assault statistics has varied, ranging from 0.01% in 2019 to 0.12% in 2013, settling at 0.06% in 2022. This indicates that while aggravated assaults have fluctuated, they have generally remained a small portion of state-wide incidents.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,510 per square mile in 2010 to 2,697 per square mile in 2022, there was a slight overall increase in violent crime incidents, though this relationship is not consistently strong throughout the period.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it is projected that violent crime rates in Troy will remain relatively stable over the next five years (up to 2029). The city is likely to continue experiencing low murder and robbery rates, with occasional fluctuations in rape and aggravated assault incidents. However, these projections should be interpreted cautiously due to the small number of incidents and the potential impact of external factors on crime rates.
In summary, Troy has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, despite moderate population growth. The most significant violent crime concern has been aggravated assaults, while murders and robberies have remained rare occurrences. The city's contribution to state-wide violent crime statistics has generally been minimal, reflecting its small size and relatively low crime rates. As Troy continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the city's safety and quality of life.
