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Thibodaux, Louisiana: Property Crime Trends Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Thibodaux, located in Louisiana, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 42.7%, from 796 to 456 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 19%, from 21,010 to 24,998 residents, highlighting an interesting contrast between crime reduction and demographic expansion.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 119 burglaries, which decreased to 41 by 2022, representing a 65.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate dropped from 5.66 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.64 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.57% in 2010, peaking at 0.76% in 2016, and settling at 0.36% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries, outpacing population growth, suggests improved security measures or shifting criminal behaviors within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also decreased over time but less dramatically than burglaries. In 2010, there were 653 larceny-theft incidents, which reduced to 402 by 2022, a 38.4% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 31.08 in 2010 to 16.08 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts varied, starting at 1.35% in 2010, dropping to 0.7% in 2019, and then rising slightly to 0.84% in 2022. This trend indicates a general improvement in preventing petty thefts, though not as pronounced as the reduction in burglaries.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents decreased from 24 in 2010 to 13 in 2022, a 45.8% reduction. However, there was a spike to 46 incidents in 2020, possibly related to pandemic conditions. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 1.14 in 2010 to 0.52 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.49% in 2010, dropping to 0.13% in 2014 and 2016, then rising to 0.62% in 2020 before settling at 0.15% in 2022. These fluctuations suggest that motor vehicle theft remains a persistent issue, albeit at lower levels than a decade ago.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively rare, with numbers ranging from 0 to 3 incidents per year. The rate per 1,000 residents has remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.12. The city's share of state arson cases has varied widely, from 0% in some years to a high of 4.05% in 2021, indicating that even small changes in the number of incidents can significantly affect the city's proportion of state totals for this crime category.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 3,093 per square mile in 2010 to 3,680 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This could suggest that increased urbanization may have led to improved community vigilance or law enforcement presence.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029, Thibodaux may see its property crime rate continue to decrease, potentially reaching around 400 incidents annually. Burglaries could further decline to approximately 30 cases per year, while larceny-theft might stabilize around 350 incidents. Motor vehicle thefts are predicted to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 10-15 cases annually.
In summary, Thibodaux has demonstrated a commendable reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts, despite population growth. This trend suggests effective crime prevention strategies and community engagement. However, the volatility in motor vehicle thefts and the occasional spikes in arson cases indicate areas that may require continued attention from law enforcement and community leaders to maintain the overall positive trajectory in property crime reduction.
