Motor vehicle theft trends in the city have been more variable. The number of incidents increased from 21 in 2010 to 26 in 2022, a 23.8% rise. However, when considering population changes, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.00 in 2010 to 1.34 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, rising from 0.35% in 2010 to 0.39% in 2022, suggesting that this issue may be growing slightly faster in the city compared to the state average.

Arson cases in the city have been relatively rare but show concerning trends. In 2010, there was only 1 reported case, which increased to 2 cases in 2022. This represents a 100% increase, though the small numbers make percentage changes less meaningful. The rate per 1,000 residents doubled from 0.05 in 2010 to 0.10 in 2022. More alarmingly, the city's contribution to state arson cases decreased from 0.51% in 2010 to 0.38% in 2022, indicating that while arson may be increasing locally, it's decreasing at a faster rate statewide.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's median income increased from $35,394 in 2013 to $46,130 in 2022, a 30.3% rise. This increase in income coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates. The percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 65% and 70% throughout the period, which may have contributed to the stability in burglary rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Based on the current trends, we can expect total property crimes to potentially decrease by another 15-20% by 2029. Burglaries and larceny-theft are likely to continue their downward trend, while motor vehicle theft and arson may require targeted interventions to prevent further increases.

In summary, Sylacauga has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in the areas of burglary and larceny-theft. The city's improving economic conditions, as evidenced by rising median incomes, appear to correlate with these positive trends. However, the increases in motor vehicle theft and arson, though small in absolute numbers, warrant attention. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on community-based crime prevention strategies and economic development initiatives could help sustain and potentially accelerate the positive trends in property crime reduction.