Federal interest rates have played a significant role in homeownership trends. From 2013 to 2016, interest rates remained very low, ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%. During this period, homeownership rates in Stapleton remained relatively stable, hovering around 36-39%. However, as interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% by 2022, homeownership rates in Stapleton declined more rapidly. This suggests that rising interest rates, combined with increasing home prices, may have contributed to making homeownership less attainable for many residents. As homeownership declined, the percentage of renters in Stapleton increased substantially. In 2013, 61% of residents were renters, which grew to 87% by 2022. Interestingly, average rent prices did not follow a consistent upward trend like home prices. The average rent was $1,363 in 2013, fluctuated over the years, and stood at $1,498 in 2022, representing a more modest 10% increase over the decade. The population of Stapleton also fluctuated during this period, reaching 3,587 in 2022, which may have influenced rental demand and prices.

The most recent data shows that the average home price in Stapleton reached $505,999 in 2023 and slightly decreased to $503,693 in 2024. This slight decline coincides with a significant increase in federal interest rates, which rose to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may be contributing to a cooling of the housing market, potentially making mortgages less affordable for prospective buyers. Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we can expect average home prices in Stapleton to continue rising, but at a more moderate pace. The rate of increase may slow down due to the current high interest rate environment. Average rent prices are likely to continue their upward trajectory, potentially at a faster rate than seen in recent years, driven by the high proportion of renters in the area and ongoing demand for rental properties.

In summary, Stapleton has experienced a significant shift from homeownership to renting over the past decade, driven by substantial increases in average home prices and influenced by changes in federal interest rates. The rental market has become increasingly dominant, with a more gradual increase in average rent prices. The recent stabilization of home prices, coupled with high interest rates, suggests a potential cooling of the housing market, which may influence future homeownership rates and property values in this Staten Island neighborhood.