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Stable Low Violent Crime Trends in Growing Geraldine, Alabama
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Geraldine, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends within a small, rural community. Over the years from 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, ranging from 0 to 3 incidents annually. This represents a modest change in percentage terms, given the low base numbers. During this same period, the population experienced some volatility, starting at 4,045 in 2010, peaking at 4,733 in 2016, and settling at 4,404 in 2022, marking an overall growth of 8.9% over the 12-year span.
The murder rate in this small town has remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is notable, especially considering the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has thus stayed at 0, and the percentage of state crime for this category has also remained at 0% throughout the years. This suggests that Geraldine has maintained a safe environment in terms of the most serious violent crime, despite demographic changes.
Rape incidents in the city have been rare, with only one reported case in 2018. This single incident resulted in a rate of 0.23 per 1,000 people for that year and represented 0.09% of the state's total rape cases. The infrequency of this crime makes it challenging to establish a trend, but it's worth noting that in all other years, the rape rate and percentage of state crime remained at 0. This isolated incident does not appear to indicate a broader pattern of sexual violence in the community.
Robbery trends in the city show minimal activity, with only one incident reported in 2011. This single robbery translated to a rate of 0.25 per 1,000 people and accounted for 0.02% of the state's robberies that year. Similar to rape, the rarity of robbery incidents makes it difficult to discern a meaningful trend. For all other years in the dataset, robbery rates and the city's contribution to state figures remained at 0, suggesting that robbery is not a persistent concern for residents.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, though numbers remain low. Incidents fluctuated between 0 and 2 per year, with peaks of 2 assaults in 2010, 2018, and 2021. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, reaching a maximum of 0.49 in 2010 when the population was lower. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures ranged from 0% to 0.03%, with the highest percentage occurring in 2010. Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend suggests that aggravated assault remains a sporadic issue rather than a consistent problem.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,058 per square mile in 2010 to 1,152 in 2022, there was no corresponding consistent increase in violent crime. The racial composition of the city, predominantly white (87-93% throughout the years), does not show a strong correlation with crime rates given the limited variability in both race distribution and crime numbers.
Applying predictive models based on the limited data available, it's challenging to forecast with high confidence. However, if current trends continue, we might expect violent crime in Geraldine to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year by 2029 (five years from now). This prediction assumes stability in population and other socioeconomic factors.
In summary, Geraldine presents a picture of a relatively safe community with very low violent crime rates. The most significant finding is the consistent absence of murders and the sporadic nature of other violent crimes. While aggravated assault occurs more frequently than other violent crimes, its incidence remains low. These trends suggest that Geraldine has maintained a safe environment despite modest population growth, with violent crime not posing a significant threat to public safety.
