Robbery trends have been more variable. The city experienced 35 robberies in 2010, representing 0.63% of the state's total. This number decreased to 20 in 2022, accounting for 0.66% of state robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.530 in 2010 to 0.281 in 2022, indicating a positive trend in robbery reduction relative to population growth.

Aggravated assault cases have shown a significant increase. In 2010, there were 81 incidents, which rose to 114 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assaults increased from 0.57% to 0.66% during this period. The rate per 1,000 people also increased from 1.227 in 2010 to 1.601 in 2022, suggesting a growing concern for public safety.

Examining correlations reveals interesting patterns. The rise in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, appears to have a strong correlation with increasing population density, which grew from 2,622 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,828 in 2022. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the increase in median rent, which rose from $821 in 2013 to $1,100 in 2022, and the overall increase in violent crimes. This could suggest economic pressures contributing to crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the increasing trend in overall violent crimes. Based on current patterns, aggravated assaults are likely to see the most significant increase, potentially reaching around 130-140 incidents annually by 2029. Rape cases may continue their upward trend, possibly reaching 20-25 incidents per year. Robbery rates are expected to remain relatively stable or show a slight decrease. Murder rates, given their volatility, are difficult to predict but are likely to remain low, possibly fluctuating between 0-3 incidents annually.

In summary, St. Charles has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as aggravated assault and rape have witnessed concerning increases. The correlation between rising population density, increasing median rent, and violent crime rates suggests that the city's growth and economic changes may be influencing crime patterns. As the community continues to evolve, targeted interventions focusing on assault prevention, support for victims of sexual violence, and addressing potential economic drivers of crime will be crucial in shaping a safer future for St. Charles.