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Sporadic Violent Crime Trends in Bailey, North Carolina: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bailey, North Carolina, is a small community that has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates alongside population changes over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes varied, reaching a peak of 2 incidents in 2011, 2012, and 2019, while the population decreased from 2,078 in 2010 to 1,595.5 in 2020, a 23.2% decline.
Murder trends in Bailey have been sporadic, with only one recorded incident in 2019. This single event resulted in a murder rate of 0.70 per 1,000 residents for that year. More notably, it represented 0.27% of the state's total murders in 2019, a significant figure for such a small community. The absence of murders in other years makes it challenging to establish a consistent trend, but it highlights the rarity of such severe crimes in the city.
Rape incidents in Bailey have been equally infrequent, with only one reported case in 2019. This resulted in a rate of 0.70 rapes per 1,000 residents for that year. The single incident accounted for 0.06% of the state's total rapes in 2019. The lack of reported rapes in other years suggests that sexual violence is not a persistent issue in the community, though the sudden appearance in 2019 warrants attention.
Robbery trends in the city show minimal activity, with only one incident reported in 2011. This single robbery represented 0.01% of the state's total robberies for that year. With a population of 2,126 in 2011, the robbery rate was approximately 0.47 per 1,000 residents. The absence of robberies in subsequent years indicates an improvement in this aspect of public safety.
Aggravated assault has been the most consistently reported violent crime in Bailey. In 2011 and 2012, there were one and two incidents respectively, each representing 0.01% of the state's total aggravated assaults. The rate peaked in 2012 at 0.95 per 1,000 residents. In 2016, another single incident was reported. The fluctuation in aggravated assaults, while low in absolute numbers, shows variability in the city's violent crime landscape.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime. As the population density decreased from 3,188 per square mile in 2014 to 2,272 in 2020, violent crime incidents became more sporadic. However, the small number of total incidents makes it difficult to establish a strong correlation.
Applying predictive models based on the limited data available, it's challenging to forecast with high confidence. However, if current trends continue, Bailey may experience low but occasional violent crime incidents over the next five years, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year by 2029. This projection assumes no significant changes in population or other socioeconomic factors.
In summary, Bailey has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite population fluctuations. The sporadic nature of serious offenses like murder and rape, combined with infrequent robberies and occasional aggravated assaults, suggests that while the community is generally safe, it is not immune to violent crime. The city's law enforcement and community leaders should remain vigilant, particularly in light of the more serious incidents in recent years, to maintain and improve public safety in this small North Carolina town.
