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Southgate, Michigan: Property Crime Decline Amid Economic Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Southgate, located in Michigan, has experienced notable shifts in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 1,133 to 570, representing a 49.7% reduction. During this same period, the population slightly decreased from 30,150 to 29,948, a 0.67% decline.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a substantial downward trend. In 2010, there were 213 burglaries, which dropped to 42 by 2022, marking an 80.3% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 7.07 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.40 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.45% in 2010, dropping to 0.29% in 2017, and then rising slightly to 0.31% by 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny-theft cases also demonstrated a declining trend, though less dramatic than burglaries. The number of incidents decreased from 803 in 2010 to 449 in 2022, a 44.1% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 26.63 to 14.99 over the same period. Interestingly, despite the overall decrease, the city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.85% in 2010 to 0.69% in 2022, with some fluctuations in between. This suggests that while larceny-theft has decreased in the city, it has done so at a rate similar to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a more variable trend. The number of thefts decreased from 117 in 2010 to 79 in 2022, a 32.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.88 to 2.64. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.53% in 2010, dropping to a low of 0.26% in 2020, before rising again to 0.38% in 2022. This pattern may indicate changing tactics by car thieves or shifts in local law enforcement priorities.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low throughout the period, with some fluctuation. The number of incidents decreased from 7 in 2010 to 5 in 2022, a 28.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents changed minimally from 0.23 to 0.17. However, the city's share of state arsons increased from 0.31% in 2010 to 0.51% in 2022, suggesting that while arson decreased in the city, it did so at a slower rate than the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $57,455 in 2013 to $64,410 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a slight positive correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and reduced property crime rates. As owner occupancy increased from 63% in 2014 to 68% in 2022, property crime rates continued to decline.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 35-40 incidents per year, larceny-theft may level off at approximately 400-425 cases annually, and motor vehicle thefts could plateau at 70-75 incidents per year. Arson cases are projected to remain low, with 3-5 incidents annually.
In summary, Southgate has experienced a significant reduction in property crimes over the past decade, with burglaries showing the most dramatic decrease. The trends in larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson have also been generally positive, though with some fluctuations. These improvements coincide with increases in median income and home ownership rates, suggesting a possible link between economic stability and reduced property crime. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will likely depend on continued economic growth, community engagement, and effective law enforcement strategies.
