South Cirby's Housing Market: Rising Values and Shifting Ownership in Roseville
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
DATA SOURCE
South Cirby, a neighborhood in Roseville, California, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This area has seen notable fluctuations in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent costs, reflecting broader economic trends and local market conditions.
The relationship between homeownership percentages and average home prices in South Cirby reveals interesting patterns. In 2013, the homeownership rate was 63%, with average home prices at $280,676. As average home prices steadily increased, reaching $366,389 in 2016, the homeownership rate rose to 73%, suggesting a strong correlation between rising home values and increased ownership. However, this trend reversed in subsequent years. By 2022, despite average home prices climbing to $613,750, the homeownership rate declined to 60%, indicating that rising prices may have begun to price out potential buyers.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in shaping homeownership trends in South Cirby. The period from 2013 to 2016, when homeownership rates increased from 63% to 73%, coincided with historically low interest rates ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%. These low rates likely made mortgages more accessible, encouraging home purchases. However, as interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, homeownership rates declined, settling at 60% in 2022.
Renter percentages and average rent prices in South Cirby have shown an inverse relationship to homeownership trends. In 2013, the renter percentage was 37%, with average rent at $851. As homeownership peaked in 2016 at 73%, the renter percentage dropped to 27%, with average rent rising to $1,365. However, by 2022, the renter percentage increased to 40%, coinciding with a sharp rise in average rent to $1,908. This trend suggests that as home prices and interest rates increased, more residents turned to renting, driving up demand and rental costs.
Looking at the most recent data, 2023 saw a slight decrease in average home prices to $580,115, followed by a modest increase to $590,813 in 2024. This cooling in the housing market coincides with significantly higher interest rates, which rose to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher rates likely contribute to the stabilization of home prices by reducing buying power and demand.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate a continued moderate increase in average home prices, potentially reaching around $650,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are expected to follow a similar trajectory, potentially surpassing $2,200 per month. These projections assume a gradual stabilization of interest rates and continued demand for housing in the Roseville area.
In summary, South Cirby has experienced significant shifts in its housing market over the past decade. The initial correlation between rising home prices and increased homeownership has given way to a more complex dynamic, influenced by escalating prices and interest rates. The rental market has responded inversely, with higher renter percentages and average rents as homeownership became less accessible. Moving forward, the neighborhood is likely to see continued growth in both home values and rental costs, albeit at a more moderate pace than in recent years.
