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Somerville, Texas: Property Crime Trends and Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Somerville, located in Texas, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, with a peak of 58 incidents in 2020 and a low of 8 in 2021. Over this period, property crime increased by 42.31%, while the population decreased by 4.74% from 1,307 in 2010 to 1,245 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2010, there were 8 burglaries, which increased to 22 in 2020, representing a 175% increase. However, by 2022, burglaries decreased to 5 incidents. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 6.12 in 2010 to 16.54 in 2020, before dropping to 4.02 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.03% in 2020 and dropping to 0.01% in 2022. This volatility suggests that while burglary remains a concern, its impact on the broader state context is minimal.
Larceny-theft incidents have also shown fluctuations. From 17 cases in 2010, it peaked at 47 in 2015, before decreasing to 9 in 2022, representing a 47.06% overall decrease. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people rose from 13.01 in 2010 to 29.5 in 2015, then fell to 7.23 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.01%. This trend suggests that while larceny-theft has decreased overall, it remains a persistent issue in the community.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown a slight upward trend. From 1 incident in 2010, it increased to 4 in 2020, before dropping to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.76 in 2010 to 3.01 in 2020, then decreased to 0.80 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low, peaking at 0.01% in 2015 and 2018. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft is not a major concern, it warrants continued attention.
Arson incidents in Somerville have remained consistently at zero throughout the reported period, from 2010 to 2022. This indicates that arson is not a significant issue in the community, with no reportable incidents or impact on state-level arson statistics.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate negative correlation between property crime and population density. As population density decreased from 454 per square mile in 2010 to 432 in 2022, property crime showed an overall increase. There's also a weak positive correlation between median income and property crime. As median income increased from $39,831 in 2013 to $48,624 in 2022, property crime showed a general upward trend, although with significant fluctuations.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect a continuation of the volatile pattern observed in recent years. Based on the historical data, property crimes may fluctuate between 10 and 50 incidents annually, with an average of around 30 incidents per year. However, this prediction should be interpreted cautiously due to the significant year-to-year variations observed in the past.
In summary, Somerville has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime over the past decade. While burglary and larceny-theft have shown overall decreases, motor vehicle theft has remained relatively stable. The city's contribution to state-level property crimes remains minimal. The inverse relationship between population density and property crime, alongside the weak positive correlation with median income, suggests complex socio-economic factors influencing crime rates in this small Texas community.
