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Silverhill, Alabama: Property Crime Decline Amid Population Surge
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Silverhill, Alabama presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 30 in 2010, peaking at 56 in 2011, and ultimately decreasing to 12 in 2022, marking a 60% reduction over this period. Concurrently, the population grew significantly from 3,087 in 2010 to 5,238 in 2022, representing a 69.7% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline. In 2010, there were 4 burglaries, which rose to 11 in 2011 but then decreased to just 1 in 2022. This represents a 75% reduction in burglaries from 2010 to 2022. When considering the population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.30 in 2010 to 0.19 in 2022, an 85.4% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.02% in 2010, peaking at 0.05% in 2016, and dropping to 0.01% by 2022. This trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing burglaries.
Larceny-theft trends followed a similar pattern. In 2010, there were 26 larceny-theft incidents, which increased to 41 in 2011 but then decreased to 10 by 2022, marking a 61.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 8.42 in 2010 to 1.91 in 2022, a 77.3% decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.05% throughout the period. This significant decrease in larceny-theft rates, despite population growth, indicates improved community vigilance or more effective deterrence measures.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown fluctuation with an overall decreasing trend. There were no reported cases in 2010 and 2012, but 4 cases were reported in 2011 and 2016. By 2022, this number had decreased to 1. The rate per 1,000 people in 2022 was 0.19, down from 1.16 in 2011 (the first year with data). The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0% to 0.06%, ending at 0.01% in 2022. This low and decreasing rate suggests effective anti-theft measures or improved vehicle security systems.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one year (2011) reporting 2 cases. This represented 0.36% of state arson cases that year. The lack of consistent data makes it challenging to establish a clear trend for arson in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 2,458 per square mile in 2010 to 4,171 in 2022, property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a positive correlation between home ownership rates and reduced property crime. The percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 69% in 2016 to 78% in 2022, coinciding with the decline in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that property crime rates in Silverhill are likely to continue their downward trajectory over the next five years. By 2029, we might expect to see total property crimes reduce further, potentially reaching single digits annually. The burglary rate could potentially drop to near zero, while larceny-theft might stabilize at around 5-7 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain very low, possibly averaging less than one case per year.
In summary, Silverhill has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates despite significant population growth. The substantial decreases in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft rates, coupled with increasing population density and home ownership, paint a picture of a community that has effectively addressed property crime issues. These trends suggest a safer, more secure environment for residents, potentially contributing to the town's attractiveness and continued growth.
