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Shrub Oak: Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership Trends
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Shrub Oak, located in Westchester County, New York, is a small suburban community with a population of 3,002 as of 2022. This charming hamlet, situated just over 1.5 square miles, has experienced significant changes in its housing market and demographic composition over the past decade. The ownership percentage has shown a declining trend, while average home prices and average rent prices have generally increased.
The homeownership rate in Shrub Oak has experienced a notable decline from 2013 to 2022. In 2013, 77% of housing units were owner-occupied, but by 2022, this figure had dropped to 57%. Conversely, average home prices have shown a steady upward trend. In 2016, the average home price was $369,918, and by 2022, it had risen to $505,001, representing a substantial increase of 36.5% over six years. This inverse relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices suggests that rising property values may be making homeownership less accessible for some residents.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in shaping homeownership trends in Shrub Oak. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were historically low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%), the homeownership rate remained relatively stable, hovering around 76-80%. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), the homeownership rate started to decline more rapidly, dropping to 61% by 2019. This trend aligns with the general principle that lower interest rates tend to encourage homeownership due to more affordable financing options, while higher rates can make mortgages less attainable for potential buyers.
The renter population in Shrub Oak has grown significantly, with the percentage of renter-occupied units increasing from 23% in 2013 to 43% in 2022. This shift coincides with a general upward trend in average rent prices. In 2013, the average rent was $1,749, which increased to $2,155 by 2018, representing a 23.2% rise. However, there was a slight decrease in average rent to $1,674 in 2022. The overall population growth from 2,189 in 2013 to 3,002 in 2022 may have contributed to the increased demand for rental properties, potentially driving up rent prices despite the recent dip.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Shrub Oak continued to rise in 2023, reaching $509,750. In 2024, the average home price further increased to $540,012, representing a 5.9% year-over-year growth. This upward trend in home prices has occurred despite the significant increase in federal interest rates, which rose from 5.02% in 2023 to 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates might typically be expected to cool the housing market, but Shrub Oak appears to be maintaining strong property values.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, it's anticipated that average home prices in Shrub Oak will continue to rise, albeit potentially at a slower rate due to the current high interest rate environment. Average rent prices may also see moderate increases as the renter population continues to grow. However, if interest rates begin to decrease in the coming years, it could potentially slow or reverse the trend of declining homeownership rates.
In summary, Shrub Oak has experienced a significant shift in its housing market dynamics over the past decade. The most important discoveries include the substantial decrease in homeownership rates, the consistent rise in average home prices despite increasing interest rates, and the growing renter population. These trends reflect a changing landscape in the local real estate market, with implications for both current and future residents of this New York community.
