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Shepherd Hills: Soaring Home Values and Shifting Ownership in Nashville Suburb
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CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Shepherd Hills, a neighborhood in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government, Tennessee, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This area has seen a notable shift from predominantly owner-occupied housing to a majority of rental properties, accompanied by substantial increases in both average home prices and average rent prices.
The ownership percentage in Shepherd Hills has shown a distinct downward trend, while average home prices have steadily increased. In 2013, 54% of housing units were owner-occupied, with an average home price of $143,034. By 2022, the ownership rate had dropped to 33%, while the average home price had risen to $336,188, representing a 135% increase over this period. This inverse relationship suggests that as home prices became less affordable, fewer residents were able to purchase homes in the neighborhood.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in homeownership trends. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were relatively low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%), homeownership rates remained fairly stable, hovering around 54-56%. However, as interest rates began to rise more sharply from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, homeownership rates declined more rapidly, dropping to 33% by 2022. This trend aligns with the general principle that higher interest rates can make mortgages less affordable, potentially discouraging homeownership.
The renter percentage in Shepherd Hills has increased correspondingly with the decline in homeownership, rising from 46% in 2013 to 67% in 2022. During this same period, average rent prices also saw a significant increase, rising from $960 in 2013 to $1,386 in 2022, a 44% increase. The population of Shepherd Hills grew from 1,080 in 2013 to 1,721 in 2022, a 59% increase. This population growth, combined with declining homeownership rates, likely contributed to increased demand for rental properties, driving up average rent prices.
In 2023 and 2024, the average home prices in Shepherd Hills showed a slight fluctuation. The average home price in 2023 was $332,061, a minor decrease from 2022. However, in 2024, the price rebounded slightly to $335,400. Interestingly, federal interest rates continued to rise, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which are significantly higher than the rates seen in previous years.
Looking ahead, based on the observed trends, we can predict that average home prices in Shepherd Hills may continue to increase moderately over the next five years, potentially reaching around $375,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are also likely to continue their upward trajectory, potentially surpassing $1,600 per month within the same timeframe.
In summary, Shepherd Hills has undergone a significant transformation in its housing market. The neighborhood has shifted from being primarily owner-occupied to predominantly renter-occupied, with substantial increases in both average home prices and average rent prices. These changes have occurred alongside population growth and fluctuations in federal interest rates, reflecting the complex interplay of factors influencing urban housing markets.
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