Robbery trends in Shelbyville have been more volatile. The number of robberies decreased from 11 in 2010 to 4 in 2022, a 63.64% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 0.42 in 2010 to 0.13 in 2022. However, the city's percentage of state robberies fluctuated, peaking at 0.39% in 2019 before falling to 0.12% in 2022. This suggests that while robberies have become less common in Shelbyville, the reduction has been in line with state-wide trends.

Aggravated assaults have shown an overall increase, rising from 98 incidents in 2010 to 106 in 2022, an 8.16% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 3.72 in 2010 to 3.40 in 2022 due to population growth outpacing the increase in assaults. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults remained relatively stable, moving from 0.47% in 2010 to 0.46% in 2022, indicating that the city's assault trends generally mirror those of the state.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population growth and the overall increase in violent crimes. As the population density increased from 1,429 per square mile in 2010 to 1,693 in 2022, violent crimes also showed an upward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changing racial demographics and crime rates. The white population percentage decreased from 70% in 2015 to 64% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 17% to 20% during the same period, coinciding with shifts in crime patterns.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Shelbyville may see a continued modest increase in overall violent crimes, potentially reaching around 150-160 incidents annually. Rape cases are likely to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 30-35 cases per year. Murders may stabilize at 2-3 per year, while robberies could remain low at 3-5 incidents annually. Aggravated assaults are projected to increase slightly, possibly reaching 110-120 cases per year.

In conclusion, Shelbyville has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. While some crime categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as rape have become more prevalent. The city's changing demographics and growing population appear to be influential factors in these trends. As Shelbyville continues to develop, addressing these crime patterns will be crucial for maintaining community safety and well-being.