Robbery trends in Shafter have shown fluctuation over the years. The number of robberies peaked at 16 in 2020, up from 6 in 2016. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has ranged from 0.28 to 0.7. The city's share of state robberies has remained relatively constant, typically around 0.02% to 0.03% of California's total, with a slight increase to 0.04% in 2020.

Aggravated assault has seen the most significant increase among violent crimes in Shafter. The number of incidents rose from 25 in 2010 to 68 in 2022, marking a 172% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.25 to 2.92 during this period. Shafter's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has grown from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2022, indicating a faster increase compared to the state average.

A correlation appears to exist between the rising violent crime rates and the increasing Hispanic population in Shafter, which grew from 76% in 2013 to 80% in 2022. Additionally, the population density increased from 516 people per square mile in 2010 to 601 in 2022, potentially contributing to higher crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it is estimated that by 2029, the total number of violent crimes in Shafter could reach approximately 110-120 incidents annually if current trends continue. Aggravated assaults are likely to constitute the majority of these crimes, potentially reaching 80-90 cases per year.

In summary, Shafter has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, over the past decade. This increase has outpaced population growth, suggesting a rising crime rate per capita. The city's contribution to state crime statistics, while still small, has been growing, especially in aggravated assaults. These trends, coupled with demographic changes and increasing population density, indicate evolving public safety challenges that may require targeted interventions and community-based strategies to address effectively.