Loading Content...
Selma's Violent Crime Trends: A Decade of Fluctuations in California's Central Valley
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Selma, a city in California, has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in Selma increased by 2.13%, rising from 141 incidents in 2010 to 144 in 2022. During this same period, the city's population grew by 6.66%, from 24,597 in 2010 to 26,234 in 2022.
The murder rate in Selma has shown considerable variability over the years. The city reported no murders in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, and 2022, while the highest number of murders (4) occurred in 2015. This peak represented 0.28% of the state's total murders that year. When considering the population, the murder rate per 1,000 residents reached its maximum of 0.15 in 2015. The sporadic nature of murders in the city makes it challenging to establish a clear trend, but it's noteworthy that the city has managed to have several years without any reported murders.
Rape incidents in Selma have fluctuated over the years, with available data showing a range from 3 cases in 2010 to a peak of 23 cases in 2018. The rape rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.12 in 2010 to 0.88 in 2018, before decreasing to 0.27 in 2022. As a percentage of state crimes, rape cases in Selma ranged from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2012, with the most recent data showing 0.06% in 2022. This suggests that while rape incidents have varied, they've generally remained a small fraction of the state's total.
Robbery trends in the city show a general decline over the examined period. In 2010, there were 41 robberies, representing 0.08% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had decreased to 19, accounting for 0.05% of state robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents also decreased from 1.67 in 2010 to 0.72 in 2022. This downward trend in robberies is a positive development for the city's safety profile.
Aggravated assault cases in Selma have shown significant fluctuations. The number of incidents rose from 97 in 2010 to a peak of 260 in 2017, before decreasing to 118 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, peaking at 10.05 in 2017 and settling at 4.50 in 2022. As a percentage of state crimes, aggravated assaults in Selma ranged from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.31% in 2017, with the most recent data showing 0.12% in 2022. These fluctuations suggest variability in the city's violent crime landscape, with recent years showing some improvement.
When examining correlations, a strong relationship is observed between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 79% in 2013 to 84% in 2022, there was a corresponding rise in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. Additionally, the city's increasing population density, which grew from 4,235 people per square mile in 2010 to 4,517 in 2022, shows a moderate correlation with overall violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight decrease in overall violent crimes. Based on recent trends, robberies are expected to continue their downward trajectory, potentially reaching about 15 incidents annually by 2029. Aggravated assaults, while fluctuating, may stabilize around 110-120 cases per year. Rape incidents are projected to remain relatively stable, averaging around 8-10 cases annually. Murder rates are expected to remain low, with potentially 0-2 cases per year.
In conclusion, Selma has experienced varied violent crime trends over the past decade. While certain categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as aggravated assault have fluctuated significantly. The city's changing demographics, particularly the growing Hispanic population and increasing density, appear to correlate with some violent crime trends. Moving forward, the projected slight decrease in overall violent crimes suggests a potentially improving safety situation for Selma residents, though continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention efforts will be crucial to maintain and further this positive trajectory.
