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Sayreville's Property Crime Decline: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Sayreville, a city in New Jersey, has experienced notable shifts in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 635 to 430, representing a 32.3% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 42,276 to 45,136, an increase of 6.8%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 126 burglaries reported, which dropped to 46 by 2022, marking a 63.5% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.98 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.02 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.73% in 2010 to 0.96% in 2022, suggesting a potentially larger decrease in burglaries at the state level.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant reduction. Cases dropped from 457 in 2010 to 328 in 2022, a 28.2% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 10.81 in 2010 to 7.27 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases decreased slightly from 0.96% to 0.91% over this period, indicating a relatively consistent trend compared to state levels.
Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. While the number of thefts increased slightly from 52 in 2010 to 56 in 2022, the rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, moving from 1.23 to 1.24. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose significantly from 0.53% to 0.86%, suggesting a potential increase in the city's vulnerability to this crime relative to other areas in the state.
Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years but remain low overall. From 1 case in 2010 to 2 cases in 2022, the rate per 1,000 residents increased marginally from 0.02 to 0.04. The city's proportion of state arson cases rose from 0.22% to 1.38%, indicating a potential increase in relative occurrence compared to other areas in the state.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 2,670 per square mile in 2010 to 2,851 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. There appears to be a weak negative correlation between median income and property crime rates, as income rose from $89,881 in 2013 to $89,589 in 2022 while crime rates generally declined.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall downward trend in property crimes. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to increase slightly, while burglaries and larceny-theft are expected to maintain their declining trends. Arson cases are projected to remain low but may fluctuate year to year.
In summary, Sayreville has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes despite population growth. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft has remained relatively stable with a slight increase. These trends, combined with demographic changes, paint a picture of a city that has made strides in improving public safety, particularly in relation to property crimes.
