Robbery trends show a decrease over the decade. The number of robberies dropped from 37 in 2010 to 22 in 2020, a 40.54% decrease. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.907 in 2010 to 0.543 in 2020. Interestingly, the city's percentage of state robberies fluctuated, peaking at 0.13% in 2019 before dropping to 0.06% in 2020. This suggests that while robberies have decreased in the city, the reduction has not been as dramatic as the state-wide trend.

Aggravated assault incidents showed some fluctuation but ultimately decreased from 46 in 2010 to 45 in 2020, a slight 2.17% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, changing from 1.128 in 2010 to 1.110 in 2020. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases varied, reaching a high of 0.10% in 2013 before settling at 0.05% in 2020. This indicates that aggravated assault trends in the city have largely mirrored state-wide patterns.

When examining correlations, a strong relationship emerges between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 9,843 per square mile in 2010 to 9,782 in 2020, there was a corresponding decrease in overall violent crime. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the Asian population percentage and crime rates. As the Asian population remained stable at around 60% throughout the decade, violent crime rates showed relative stability with some fluctuations.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall violent crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, we project that by 2029, the total number of violent crimes could potentially decrease to around 65-70 incidents per year, assuming population and demographic trends remain consistent.

In summary, San Gabriel has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade. The consistently low murder rate, decreasing robbery incidents, and stable aggravated assault numbers paint a picture of a city that has maintained relatively good public safety. However, the increase in reported rapes warrants attention and potentially targeted prevention efforts. The city's crime trends largely mirror or outperform state averages, suggesting effective local law enforcement strategies. As San Gabriel moves forward, maintaining these positive trends while addressing specific areas of concern will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.