Loading Content...
San Fernando's Property Crime Trends: A Decade of Resilience Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
San Fernando, located in California, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a notable fluctuation in total property crimes, decreasing from 379 in 2010 to 417 in 2022, representing a 10% increase. During this same period, the population grew modestly from 23,628 in 2010 to 23,958 in 2022, a 1.4% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 79 burglaries, which peaked at 126 in 2015, before dramatically decreasing to 61 in 2022. This represents a 22.8% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.34 in 2010 to 2.55 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.04% in 2010, peaking at 0.08% in 2015, and returning to 0.05% by 2022. This overall decline in burglaries, despite population growth, suggests improved security measures or shifts in criminal activity within the city.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed considerable variability. Starting at 213 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 270 in 2011, then declined to 260 in 2022. This represents a 22% increase over the period. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 9.01 in 2010 to 10.85 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.02% and 0.05% throughout the period. The increase in larceny theft, outpacing population growth, might indicate changing economic conditions or shifts in criminal focus.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 87 incidents, which increased to 96 in 2022, representing a 10.3% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 3.68 in 2010 to 4.01 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022. This increase in motor vehicle thefts, despite a relatively stable population, could suggest a growing targeted criminal activity in this area.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. From 3 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 0 in 2015 and 2018, before rising to 4 in 2020. Data for 2022 was not available. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0 to 0.16 during this period. The city's contribution to state arson cases varied between 0% and 0.05%. The low numbers make it difficult to establish a clear trend, but the sporadic nature of these incidents suggests they might be isolated events rather than part of a larger pattern.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $61,638 in 2013 to $66,148 in 2022, overall property crime rates tended to decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a slight positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing general increases over the observed period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of recent patterns. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 55-60 incidents annually. Larceny theft might see a slight increase, potentially reaching 280-300 cases per year. Motor vehicle theft could continue its upward trend, possibly reaching 110-120 incidents annually. Arson cases are likely to remain low but unpredictable, ranging from 0 to 5 incidents per year.
In summary, San Fernando has experienced diverse trends across different types of property crimes over the past decade. While burglary rates have decreased significantly, larceny theft and motor vehicle theft have shown increases. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, paint a complex picture of the city's evolving crime landscape. The forecasted trends suggest a need for targeted strategies to address specific areas of concern, particularly in preventing larceny theft and motor vehicle theft.
