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Rosebud, Missouri: Property Crime Trends in a Growing Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Rosebud, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both property crime rates and population. The total number of property crimes increased from 0 in 2011 to 8 in 2022, representing a significant percentage increase. During the same period, the population grew from 1,507 in 2011 to 1,595 in 2022, a 5.84% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown notable variations. In 2018, there were 7 burglaries reported, which represented 0.04% of the state's total burglaries. This translates to approximately 4.27 burglaries per 1,000 residents. However, by 2022, burglaries had decreased to 0, indicating a 100% reduction. This significant drop suggests improved home security measures or increased law enforcement effectiveness in preventing break-ins.
Larceny-theft incidents have fluctuated over the years. In 2018, there were 3 reported cases, which increased to 9 in 2020, and then decreased to 6 in 2022. The 2022 figure represents 0.01% of the state's larceny-theft cases and equates to about 3.76 incidents per 1,000 residents. This trend indicates a slight increase in petty theft over time, possibly reflecting economic pressures or changes in local policing strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown an upward trend. From 1 reported case in 2018 (0.01% of state total), it decreased to 0 in 2020, but then rose to 2 cases in 2022 (0.01% of state total). This represents approximately 1.25 motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 residents in 2022. While the numbers are small, the increase could signal a need for enhanced vehicle security measures in the community.
Arson cases have remained consistently at 0 from 2011 to 2022, indicating either effective fire prevention measures or possibly underreporting of such incidents.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,772 per square mile in 2021 to 1,831 in 2022, property crimes rose from 5 to 8. Additionally, there's a potential correlation between rising median income and property crime. The median income increased from $62,317 in 2021 to $68,297 in 2022, coinciding with the increase in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall property crimes. Based on the current trends, larceny-theft is likely to remain the most common property crime, potentially reaching 8-10 incidents annually by 2029. Motor vehicle thefts may stabilize around 2-3 cases per year, while burglaries could fluctuate between 0-2 cases annually.
In summary, Rosebud has experienced a notable increase in property crimes from 2011 to 2022, with larceny-theft emerging as the primary concern. The city's growing population and increasing median income appear to correlate with these crime trends. While the overall numbers remain relatively low, the upward trajectory suggests a need for targeted crime prevention strategies, particularly in addressing larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft. The absence of arson cases is a positive indicator, but continued vigilance in fire safety is advisable.
