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Rocky Mount, NC: Property Crime Trends Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Rocky Mount, North Carolina, a city of 59,634 residents as of 2022, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically by 58.3%, from 3,566 to 1,486. This substantial reduction occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing by 7.2% during the same period.
Burglary incidents in the city have shown a consistent downward trend. In 2010, there were 1,057 burglaries, which decreased to 312 by 2022, representing a 70.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 16.4 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 5.2 per 1,000 in 2022. Despite this significant decrease, the city's share of state burglaries has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 1.28% and 2.26% over the years. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, the improvement is largely in line with statewide trends.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a substantial decline. The number of incidents dropped from 2,339 in 2010 to 1,026 in 2022, a 56.1% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 36.4 in 2010 to 17.2 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state larceny thefts decreased more dramatically, from 1.8% in 2010 to 0.86% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvement in this category outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While the number of incidents decreased from 170 in 2010 to 148 in 2022, a 12.9% reduction, the rate per 1,000 residents only marginally decreased from 2.6 to 2.5. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, reaching a low of 0.76% in 2021 before increasing to 1.02% in 2022. This suggests that while overall numbers have decreased, motor vehicle theft remains a persistent issue relative to population size.
Arson cases in the city have shown volatility over the years. The number of incidents increased from 13 in 2010 to 18 in 2022, a 38.5% increase. When adjusted for population, the rate rose from 0.2 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.3 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state arsons has increased significantly, from 1.27% in 2010 to 2.05% in 2022, indicating that arson has become a more prominent issue in the city relative to the state.
Analysis of correlations reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $40,073 in 2013 to $48,472 in 2022, overall property crime rates declined. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the percentage of Black residents (which increased slightly from 58% in 2013 to 60% in 2022) and the city's share of state property crimes in certain categories.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued overall decline in property crimes, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries and larceny thefts are expected to continue decreasing, while motor vehicle thefts and arsons may stabilize or see slight increases.
In summary, Rocky Mount has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny thefts. However, challenges remain with motor vehicle thefts and arsons. The city's changing demographic and economic landscape appears to have influenced these trends, with rising median incomes potentially contributing to crime reduction. Moving forward, targeted strategies to address persistent issues like motor vehicle theft and arson will be crucial for continuing the overall positive trend in property crime reduction.
