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Rocky Ford, Colorado: Declining Violent Crime Trends Amidst Population Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Rocky Ford, a small city in Colorado with a population of 5,272 in 2022, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime rates over the past decade. The city has seen a significant 80% decrease in violent crimes from 2010 to 2022, with the total number fluctuating from a high of 15 in 2010 to a low of 1 in 2012, and most recently 3 in 2022. During this period, the population slightly decreased by 0.62%, from 5,305 in 2010 to 5,272 in 2022.
The murder rate in Rocky Ford has remained remarkably low throughout the observed period. Only one murder was recorded in 2015, representing 0.68% of the state's total murders that year, with a rate of 0.17 murders per 1,000 people. In all other years, including 2022, the murder rate was zero, indicating the city's success in preventing the most serious violent crimes.
Rape incidents in Rocky Ford have been sporadic and infrequent. Only one case was reported in 2013, accounting for 0.04% of the state's total rapes that year, with a rate of 0.18 rapes per 1,000 people. No other rape cases were reported in the available data, including in 2022. The low incidence of reported rapes could suggest effective prevention measures or potential underreporting, a common issue with this type of crime.
The robbery rate in Rocky Ford has consistently remained at zero from 2010 to 2022. This absence of reported robberies indicates that the city has been effective in deterring this type of crime, which is particularly noteworthy for a smaller community that may face economic challenges.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Rocky Ford. The number of aggravated assaults peaked at 15 in 2010, representing 0.19% of the state's total, with a rate of 2.83 assaults per 1,000 people. By 2022, this number had decreased to 3, or 0.02% of the state's total, resulting in a rate of 0.57 assaults per 1,000 people. This represents a significant 80% decrease in the aggravated assault rate over the 12-year period.
A correlation appears to exist between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates in Rocky Ford. As the Hispanic population increased from 56% in 2013 to 59% in 2019, the violent crime rate decreased. However, it is important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and other factors may be influencing this trend.
Based on predictive models using the available data, it is forecasted that the violent crime rate in Rocky Ford will continue to remain low over the next five years (until 2029). The aggravated assault rate is expected to stabilize around 0.5 to 0.6 per 1,000 people, while murder, rape, and robbery rates are predicted to remain close to zero.
In summary, Rocky Ford has demonstrated a significant overall reduction in violent crime rates from 2010 to 2022, particularly in aggravated assaults. The city has maintained consistently low rates of murder, rape, and robbery throughout this period. These trends, combined with the slight population decrease, suggest that Rocky Ford has made progress in enhancing public safety. However, continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in maintaining these positive trends in the coming years.
