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Rockingham, NC: Rising Violent Crime Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Rockingham, located in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime rates and population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 50 in 2010 to 68 in 2022, representing a 36% rise. During the same period, the city's population declined from 14,290 in 2010 to 12,593 in 2022, a decrease of approximately 11.9%.
Murder rates in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010 and 2011, there were no reported murders. However, the number increased to 4 in 2020 and 2022, with a spike of 11 murders in 2021. This translates to a murder rate of 0.32 per 1,000 people in 2022, up from 0 in 2010. The percentage of state murders attributable to the city has also risen dramatically, from 0% in 2010 to 0.7% in 2022, with a peak of 1.72% in 2021. This trend suggests that while the city's population has decreased, its contribution to the state's murder rate has grown significantly.
Rape incidents in Rockingham have shown an upward trend. In 2010, there was 1 reported rape, which increased to 9 in 2022. This represents a rate increase from 0.07 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.71 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's total rape cases has also risen from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.47% in 2022. This indicates that sexual violence has become a growing concern in the community, outpacing the state average.
Robbery trends in the city have been more variable. The number of robberies decreased from 28 in 2010 to 11 in 2022, a 60.7% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.96 in 2010 to 0.87 in 2022. However, the city's share of state robberies has remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 0.38% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2022. This suggests that while robbery has become less prevalent in the city, its reduction is somewhat in line with state trends.
Aggravated assault cases have shown a significant increase. In 2010, there were 21 reported cases, which rose to 44 in 2022, a 109.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.47 in 2010 to 3.49 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has also risen from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.18% in 2022, peaking at 0.32% in 2018. This indicates that aggravated assault has become a more pressing issue in the community over time.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,869 per square mile in 2010 to 1,647 in 2022, violent crime rates generally increased. Additionally, there is a notable correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. The percentage of Black residents increased from 32% in 2013 to 38% in 2022, coinciding with the overall increase in violent crimes.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Rockingham may see its violent crime rate continue to rise. Murders could potentially increase to 6-7 per year, rape incidents might reach 12-14 annually, robberies could stabilize around 10-12 per year, and aggravated assaults may climb to 55-60 cases annually.
In summary, Rockingham has faced challenging trends in violent crime over the past decade, particularly in murders, rapes, and aggravated assaults, despite a decreasing population. The city's contribution to state crime rates has generally increased, suggesting localized factors may be influencing these trends. The correlation between demographic shifts, decreasing population density, and rising crime rates underscores the complex interplay of social and economic factors affecting public safety in the community.
