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Rising Violent Crime Trends in Moraga, California: A Decade of Change in a Small Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Moraga, a small community in California's Contra Costa County, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 11 to 30, representing a 172.73% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 16,192 to 17,042, a modest 5.25% increase.
The murder rate in Moraga has remained consistently at zero throughout the reported period from 2010 to 2022. This stability is significant, especially considering the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0, and the percentage of state crime for murder has consistently been 0%. This indicates that Moraga has maintained a exceptionally safe environment in terms of homicides, even as the population has increased.
Rape incidents in the city have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were no reported rapes, but by 2022, there were 4 incidents. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0 to 0.23 over this period. The percentage of state crime for rape also increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022. This trend suggests a slight increase in sexual violence, though the numbers remain relatively low compared to larger urban areas.
Robbery trends show some variation. In 2010, there were 3 robberies, which decreased to 0 in 2013 and 2014, but then rose again to 4 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people went from 0.19 in 2010 to 0.23 in 2022. The percentage of state crime for robbery remained relatively low, increasing slightly from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. These figures indicate that while robbery incidents have fluctuated, they have not significantly increased in proportion to the population growth.
Aggravated assault has shown the most dramatic increase among violent crimes in Moraga. In 2010, there were 8 incidents, which rose to 22 in 2022, a 175% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.49 to 1.29 over this period. The percentage of state crime for aggravated assault also increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. This trend suggests a concerning rise in serious assaults within the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the increase in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics. As the percentage of white residents decreased from 72% in 2013 to 62% in 2022, and the Asian population increased from 15% to 20%, violent crimes saw an overall increase. However, it's crucial to note that correlation does not imply causation, and multiple factors contribute to crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the current trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Moraga may see its total violent crimes reach approximately 45-50 incidents annually if current trends continue without intervention. This would represent a further increase of about 50-67% from 2022 levels.
In summary, while Moraga has maintained its status as a relatively safe community with no murders, it has experienced concerning increases in other forms of violent crime, particularly aggravated assault. The city's changing demographics and modest population growth have coincided with these shifts in crime patterns. As Moraga continues to evolve, addressing these rising violent crime trends will be crucial for maintaining the safety and quality of life for its residents.
