Loading Content...
Rising Violent Crime Trends in Havre, Montana: A Decade of Change in a Small Urban Center
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Havre, Montana, a small urban center with a population of 7,891 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates alongside modest population changes over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 64.29%, from 56 to 92 incidents, while the population decreased slightly by 1.47%, from 8,009 to 7,891 residents.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently low, with most years reporting zero incidents. The only exceptions were in 2013, 2014, and 2020, each reporting a single murder. These isolated events resulted in murder rates of 0.13, 0.12, and 0.12 per 1,000 people respectively. The percentage of state murders attributable to the city fluctuated correspondingly, peaking at 10% in 2013 and 5.56% in 2014, before settling at 4.17% in 2020. This sporadic pattern suggests that while murder is not a persistent issue, individual incidents can significantly impact the city's crime statistics due to its small population.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 11 reported cases, which increased to 22 by 2022, representing a 100% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.37 in 2010 to 2.79 in 2022. However, the city's percentage of state rape cases fluctuated, ranging from a low of 0.85% in 2019 to a high of 9.24% in 2010. The 2022 figure of 5.51% suggests that while rape incidents have increased locally, they have not grown as rapidly as the state average.
Robbery rates in the city have been relatively low but volatile. The number of incidents ranged from 0 to 8 over the years, with 2022 reporting 6 cases. This represents a 200% increase from 2010's 2 incidents. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.25 in 2010 to 0.76 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies has fluctuated significantly, from 0.49% in 2016 to 4.24% in 2011, settling at 2.59% in 2022. This suggests that while robberies have increased locally, they remain a small fraction of state totals.
Aggravated assault has shown the most substantial increase among violent crimes. Incidents rose from 43 in 2010 to 64 in 2022, a 48.84% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 5.37 in 2010 to 8.11 in 2022. Despite this local increase, the city's percentage of state aggravated assaults decreased from 5.14% in 2010 to 2.7% in 2022, indicating that assault rates have grown more rapidly elsewhere in the state.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As density increased from 2,159 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,127 in 2022, violent crimes generally trended upward. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the slight decrease in the white population (from 84% in 2013 to 79% in 2022) and the increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, violent crimes could increase by approximately 30% from 2022 levels, with aggravated assaults potentially reaching around 83 incidents annually, and rape cases possibly rising to 29 per year. However, murder rates are expected to remain low and sporadic.
In conclusion, Havre has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults and rape incidents. While the city's contribution to state crime percentages has fluctuated, the local crime rates have generally increased faster than population growth. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement initiatives to address the rising crime rates in this small Montana city.
