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Rising Violent Crime Trends in Harrison, NJ: A Small City's Big Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Harrison, New Jersey, a small city spanning just 1.21 square miles, has experienced significant population growth and evolving crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with 41 incidents reported in 2010 and 57 in 2022, marking a 39% increase. During this same period, the population grew substantially from 13,542 to 19,217, representing a 41.9% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained remarkably low, with only four incidents reported between 2010 and 2022. Three murders occurred in 2011, accounting for 1.03% of the state's total, and one in 2018, representing 0.55% of the state's murders that year. With such infrequent occurrences, the murder rate per 1,000 people has remained negligible, hovering close to zero throughout the period. This suggests that despite population growth, the city has maintained a very low incidence of homicides.
Rape incidents have shown some variability over the years. In 2013 and 2014, data was not available, but the numbers ranged from 0 to 5 cases annually in other years. The highest number of reported rapes (5) occurred in 2018 and 2019, representing 0.72% and 0.69% of the state's total, respectively. In 2022, there were again 5 reported rapes, accounting for 0.76% of the state's total. The rape rate per 1,000 people has fluctuated but generally remained low, with a slight increase from 0.07 per 1,000 in 2010 to 0.26 per 1,000 in 2022, indicating a marginal rise in proportion to population growth.
Robbery trends have shown more significant changes. The number of robberies peaked at 32 in 2013, representing 0.4% of the state's total. However, there has been a general downward trend since then, with 18 robberies reported in 2022, accounting for 0.75% of the state's total. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has decreased from 0.74 in 2010 to 0.94 in 2022, despite some fluctuations. This suggests that while the absolute number of robberies has increased slightly, the rate relative to population growth has remained relatively stable.
Aggravated assault cases have shown an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 30 reported cases, representing 0.35% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had risen to 34 cases, accounting for 0.6% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people has remained relatively stable, moving from 2.22 in 2010 to 1.77 in 2022, indicating that the increase in cases has been roughly proportional to population growth.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 11,181 per square mile in 2010 to 15,866 in 2022, the total number of violent crimes also showed an overall upward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the rising median rent, which increased from $1,108 in 2013 to $1,805 in 2022, and the fluctuations in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect a continued gradual increase in overall violent crime numbers, potentially reaching around 65-70 incidents annually. This projection is based on the historical growth patterns and the anticipated continued population increase.
In summary, Harrison has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime trends against the backdrop of significant population growth. While murder rates have remained exceptionally low, other categories of violent crime have shown varying patterns. The city's ability to maintain relatively stable crime rates per capita, despite rapid population growth, suggests effective law enforcement strategies. However, the increasing trend in aggravated assaults and the correlation with rising population density and median rent prices indicate areas that may require focused attention in the coming years to ensure public safety keeps pace with urban development.
