Robbery trends in Lillington have fluctuated over the years. In 2011, there were 2 robberies, which increased to 5 in 2014, then decreased to 1 in 2021, before rising again to 2 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.137 in 2011 to 0.125 in 2022, a 8.76% decrease. The city's share of state robberies has remained relatively low, ranging from 0.02% to 0.08% over the years.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Lillington. The number of cases increased from 4 in 2011 to 8 in 2022, a 100% increase. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.274 in 2011 to 0.501 in 2022, an 82.85% rise. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.07% over the years.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in violent crime and the city's growing population density. As the population density increased from 2,334 people per square mile in 2011 to 2,551 in 2022, violent crime incidents also rose. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the racial composition changes and crime trends. The percentage of white residents increased slightly from 62% in 2013 to 64% in 2022, while the Black population decreased from 25% to 19% over the same period. The Hispanic population saw minor fluctuations, peaking at 14% in 2018 before settling at 10% in 2022.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Lillington may see a further increase in violent crime incidents. The model suggests a potential rise to approximately 18-20 total violent crimes annually, with aggravated assaults and rapes potentially showing the most significant increases. However, murder rates are expected to remain very low, possibly with no incidents in most years.

In summary, Lillington has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While the overall number of violent crimes has increased, this growth has been uneven across different categories. The city has maintained an exceptionally low murder rate, but has seen concerning increases in rapes and aggravated assaults. The correlation between demographic changes, increasing population density, and rising violent crime rates suggests a need for targeted community interventions and law enforcement strategies to address these trends effectively.