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Rising Violent Crime in Rogers, Arkansas: A Decade of Population Growth and Safety Concerns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Rogers, Arkansas, has experienced notable changes in violent crime rates alongside significant population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 30.14%, from 219 to 285 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew substantially, rising from an estimated 65,016 in 2016 to 72,996 in 2022, representing a 12.27% increase in just six years.
The murder rate in the city has fluctuated over the years, showing no consistent trend. In 2010, there were 2 murders, representing 2.11% of the state's total. The rate dropped to zero in several years (2012-2014, 2016-2017, 2020) but rose again to 3 in 2021, accounting for 1.31% of the state's murders. In 2022, it decreased to 1 murder, or 0.4% of the state's total. When considering the population, the murder rate per 1,000 people has remained relatively low, peaking at 0.042 per 1,000 in 2021 and dropping to 0.014 per 1,000 in 2022.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 50 reported rapes, which increased to 82 in 2022, representing a 64% increase. The percentage of state rapes attributed to the city has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 2.99% and 7.5%. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.769 in 2010 to 1.123 in 2022, indicating a growing issue that warrants attention from local law enforcement and community services.
Robbery rates have shown some variability but with an overall increasing trend. In 2010, there were 11 robberies, which increased to 14 in 2022, a 27.27% increase. The city's share of state robberies has grown from 0.51% in 2010 to 1.26% in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has remained relatively stable, moving from 0.169 in 2010 to 0.192 in 2022, suggesting that the increase in robberies is roughly proportional to population growth.
Aggravated assault cases have seen a significant increase over the years. In 2010, there were 156 cases, which rose to 188 in 2022, representing a 20.51% increase. However, the city's contribution to state-wide aggravated assaults has decreased from 1.98% in 2010 to 1.61% in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people has slightly decreased from 2.399 in 2010 to 2.575 in 2022, indicating that the increase in cases is somewhat in line with population growth.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes and population density. As the population density increased from 1,671 people per square mile in 2016 to 1,876 in 2022, violent crimes also showed an upward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between rising median rent and increased violent crime rates. Median rent rose from $826 in 2016 to $1,209 in 2022, a 46.37% increase, coinciding with the overall increase in violent crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual increase in overall violent crimes, potentially reaching around 320-330 incidents annually. This projection assumes that current trends in population growth and socioeconomic factors remain consistent.
In summary, Rogers has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes, particularly in rape and aggravated assault cases, over the past decade. This trend correlates with significant population growth and increasing population density. The city's contribution to state-wide crime statistics has fluctuated, with some categories showing an increased share and others decreasing. The rising median rent may also be a factor contributing to the overall increase in violent crimes. As the city continues to grow, it will be crucial for local authorities to implement targeted strategies to address these crime trends and ensure the safety and well-being of its residents.
