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Rising Violent Crime in Pagedale, Missouri: A Study of Trends Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Pagedale, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total violent crimes, with a notable increase from 30 incidents in 2010 to 57 in 2022, representing a 90% rise. Simultaneously, the population decreased from 4,142 in 2010 to 3,270 in 2022, a 21% reduction, creating a complex dynamic between crime rates and demographic shifts.
Murder rates in the city have shown volatility over the years. The number of murders fluctuated between 0 and 3 annually, with the highest counts of 3 occurring in 2019 and 2020. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.48 in 2010 to 0.61 in 2022. The city's contribution to state murder statistics varied significantly, peaking at 0.67% in 2019 and dropping to 0.37% in 2022. This volatility suggests localized factors influencing murder rates independently of broader state trends.
Rape incidents in the city have been relatively low and inconsistent. The highest number reported was 4 cases in both 2013 and 2017. The rape rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 1.08 in 2017. The city's percentage of state rape cases remained low, never exceeding 0.25% (in 2012). The inconsistent nature of these statistics makes it challenging to identify clear trends, but it suggests that rape is not a prevalent issue compared to other violent crimes in the area.
Robbery trends show a concerning increase over time. The number of robberies rose from 9 in 2010 to 16 in 2016, before decreasing to 6 in 2022. Despite the recent decline, the robbery rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.17 in 2010 to 1.83 in 2022 due to the population decrease. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics peaked at 0.31% in 2018, indicating a period of heightened concern for this type of crime.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant increase among violent crimes. Incidents rose from 19 in 2010 to 49 in 2022, a 158% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents more than doubled from 4.59 in 2010 to 14.98 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases grew from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.28% in 2022, highlighting a local trend that outpaced state averages.
A strong correlation exists between the rise in violent crimes and the decrease in population density. As the population density dropped from 3,441 per square mile in 2010 to 2,716 in 2022, violent crime rates increased. This inverse relationship suggests that factors associated with population decline, such as reduced community cohesion or economic challenges, may contribute to rising crime rates.
Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the racial composition and crime trends. The Black population percentage decreased slightly from 92% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, while the White population increased from 5% to 7%. This shift coincides with the overall increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, suggesting potential socio-economic factors at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued increase in overall violent crimes if current trends persist. The model predicts that aggravated assaults could reach up to 65-70 incidents annually, while robberies might stabilize around 8-10 cases per year. Murder rates are expected to remain volatile but could average 2-3 cases annually. Rape incidents are projected to remain low but unpredictable.
In conclusion, Pagedale faces significant challenges with violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults. The inverse relationship between population decline and rising crime rates underscores the need for targeted interventions. As the demographic composition continues to evolve, addressing underlying socio-economic factors will be crucial in mitigating the projected increase in violent crimes over the next five years.
