Robbery trends in Lockport have shown an upward trajectory. In 2010, there were 15 robberies, representing 0.06% of the state's total. By 2020, this number increased to 26, accounting for 0.16% of the state's robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.70 in 2010 to 1.26 in 2020, a 80% increase. This rise in robberies, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals, suggests a growing concern for property-related violent crimes in the city.

Aggravated assault cases have seen the most significant increase among violent crimes in Lockport. In 2010, there were 43 reported cases, representing 0.12% of the state's total. By 2020, this number rose to 71, accounting for 0.18% of the state's aggravated assaults. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 2.02 in 2010 to 3.43 in 2020, a 69.8% rise. This substantial increase in aggravated assaults indicates a growing issue with violent confrontations in the city.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 2,535 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,462 in 2020, violent crimes increased. This suggests that population density alone is not a determining factor in the city's crime rates. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and the increase in violent crimes. The percentage of white residents decreased from 83% in 2013 to 81% in 2020, while the percentage of Black residents increased from 8% to 9%, and those identifying as two or more races increased from 2% to 5%. This demographic shift coincided with the rise in violent crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further study.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Lockport may see a continued increase in violent crimes if current trends persist. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach around 160-170 incidents per year, with aggravated assaults and robberies likely to show the most significant increases.

In summary, Lockport has experienced a concerning rise in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in rape, robbery, and aggravated assault cases. While the murder rate has remained exceptionally low, the substantial increases in other violent crimes suggest a need for targeted intervention strategies. The changing demographic composition of the city, coupled with these crime trends, indicates that Lockport is undergoing significant social changes that may be influencing its safety landscape. As the city moves forward, addressing these rising crime rates while maintaining its success in homicide prevention will be crucial for ensuring the overall safety and well-being of its residents.