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Rising Violent Crime in Hays, Kansas: A Decade of Change in a Growing Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Hays, located in Kansas, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 62 incidents in 2010 to 88 in 2021, representing a 41.9% rise. During this same period, the population grew from 21,678 to 23,173, a 6.9% increase, suggesting that crime rates outpaced population growth.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero incidents. However, there were isolated cases in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019, and 2021, each recording one murder. The murder rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.04, with the highest rate in 2021. The city's contribution to the state's murder rate varied significantly, from 0% in most years to 3.33% in 2021, indicating a disproportionate impact in that year given the city's small population.
Rape incidents showed considerable variation over the years. The number of reported rapes ranged from a low of 2 in 2016 to a high of 13 in 2011. The rape rate per 1,000 people fluctuated between 0.09 and 0.59, with the highest rate in 2011. The city's percentage of state rape cases also varied, from 0.22% in 2016 to 2.19% in 2021, showing an increasing trend in recent years. This suggests that while the absolute numbers remained relatively low, the city's contribution to state rape statistics has grown.
Robbery incidents in the city remained low but showed some variation. The number of robberies ranged from 2 to 8 per year, with the highest number recorded in 2021. The robbery rate per 1,000 people varied between 0.09 and 0.35, peaking in 2021. The city's percentage of state robberies increased from 0.14% in 2010 to 2.84% in 2021, indicating a growing share of state robbery cases despite the small population.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents ranged from 41 in 2019 to 86 in 2012. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people varied between 1.79 and 3.83, with the highest rate in 2012. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases fluctuated between 0.65% and 2.17%, with the highest percentage in 2021. This suggests that aggravated assault has been a persistent issue, with the city's share of state cases increasing in recent years.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,508 per square mile in 2010 to 2,681 in 2021, violent crime rates also showed an overall upward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between the city's racial composition and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased slightly from 90% in 2013 to 87% in 2021, and the Hispanic population increased from 5% to 7%, violent crime rates showed an upward trend.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029, the city may see a 15-20% increase in total violent crimes compared to 2021 levels, potentially reaching around 100-105 incidents annually. This projection assumes current trends continue without significant interventions or changes in socioeconomic factors.
In summary, Hays has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. While murder rates remain low, there has been a concerning rise in the city's contribution to state-level statistics for rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. The relationship between population density, changing demographics, and crime rates suggests a complex interplay of factors influencing public safety in this Kansas community.
