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Rising Property Crime Trends in South El Monte, California: A Decade of Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
South El Monte, California, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 82%, from 477 to 868 incidents. This significant rise occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing by 7.1% from 23,567 in 2010 to 21,890 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 93 burglaries, which increased to 295 by 2022, representing a 217% increase. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 3.95 in 2010 to 13.48 in 2022, a 241% increase. The city's share of state burglaries also grew substantially, from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.25% in 2022. This disproportionate increase suggests that burglary has become a more pressing issue in South El Monte compared to other parts of California.
Larceny theft incidents fluctuated over the years but ultimately increased. In 2010, there were 247 cases, rising to 377 in 2022, a 52.6% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 10.48 to 17.22, a 64.3% increase. However, the city's share of state larceny thefts increased more modestly, from 0.05% to 0.08%. This indicates that while larceny theft has become more prevalent in the city, its growth has been somewhat in line with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in South El Monte showed a more moderate increase. There were 137 incidents in 2010, rising to 196 in 2022, a 43.1% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 5.81 to 8.95, a 54% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.11% to 0.13%. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft has increased, it has not outpaced statewide trends as dramatically as other property crimes.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively low but volatile. In 2010, there were 5 reported cases, which remained the same in 2018. However, by 2020, this number had increased to 9 cases. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.21 in 2010 to 0.39 in 2020. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated, peaking at 0.13% in 2017 before dropping to 0.09% in 2020.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 8,287 per square mile in 2010 to 7,697 in 2022, property crimes increased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the rising Asian population (from 11% in 2013 to 17% in 2022) and the increase in property crimes, though this does not imply causation and may be coincidental.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued increase in overall property crimes. By 2029, five years from now, the total number of property crimes could potentially reach around 1,200 incidents annually if current trends persist. Burglaries are projected to see the most significant increase, potentially reaching 400 cases per year. Larceny theft and motor vehicle theft are also expected to rise, albeit at a slower rate.
In conclusion, South El Monte has experienced a substantial increase in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries, despite a declining population. This trend suggests a need for targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement initiatives to address the rising property crime rates. The city's changing demographics and decreasing population density appear to correlate with these trends, highlighting the complex interplay between social factors and crime rates.
