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Rising Property Crime Trends in Marion, Alabama: A Decade of Change Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Marion, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. With a population of 3,517 in 2022 and covering an area of 10.57 square miles, this small city has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape. From 2011 to 2020, the total number of property crimes increased from 0 to 12, representing a substantial rise. This change occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the city's population decreasing from 3,729 in 2011 to 3,575 in 2020.
The burglary rate in the city saw a marked increase from 2011 to 2020. In 2011, there were no reported burglaries, but by 2020, the number had risen to 8 incidents. This translates to a rate of approximately 2.24 burglaries per 1,000 residents in 2020. More significantly, the city's contribution to state-wide burglary statistics jumped to 1.91% in 2020, indicating that Marion was experiencing a disproportionately high rate of burglaries relative to its population size within the state.
Larceny-theft incidents also increased during this period, though not as dramatically as burglaries. From zero reported cases in 2011, the number rose to 3 in 2020. This equates to about 0.84 larceny-thefts per 1,000 residents in 2020. However, the city's contribution to state-wide larceny-theft statistics remained relatively low at 0.16% in 2020, suggesting that while there was an increase, it was not as significant in the broader state context.
Motor vehicle theft showed a minimal increase, with one reported case in 2020 compared to none in 2011. This represents a rate of approximately 0.28 motor vehicle thefts per 1,000 residents in 2020. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft statistics was 0.51% in 2020, indicating a slightly higher than expected rate given the city's population.
Arson trends present an intriguing pattern. In 2011, there was one reported case of arson, representing 0.18% of the state's total. However, by 2020, no data was available for arson incidents. This lack of data makes it difficult to draw conclusions about the trend of arson in the city over time.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and other socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. For instance, as the median income dropped from $43,769 in 2014 to $15,289 in 2016, property crime rates began to rise. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the racial composition of the city and crime rates. As the percentage of Black residents increased from 54% in 2019 to 60% in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024) suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend in property crimes. Based on the historical data and current socioeconomic factors, it's projected that burglary rates may increase by 15-20%, while larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft rates could see a more modest increase of 5-10%.
In summary, Marion has experienced a significant increase in property crimes from 2011 to 2020, particularly in burglaries. This trend appears to be influenced by factors such as declining median income and shifts in racial demographics. The city's contribution to state-wide crime statistics, especially in burglaries, has become disproportionately high given its population size. As the city moves forward, addressing these property crime trends will likely be a key focus for local law enforcement and community leaders in Marion.
