When examining the relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates, we observe some interesting patterns. From 2013 to 2015, when interest rates were historically low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.13%), homeownership rates remained stable at around 62-63%. As interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2016 onwards, reaching 1.83% in 2018, homeownership rates initially dipped to 61% in 2016 but then rebounded to 63% by 2018. This suggests that while interest rates play a role, other local factors may have a stronger influence on homeownership decisions in Ashland.

Renter percentages in Ashland have generally mirrored the inverse of homeownership rates, as expected. The renter-occupied percentage reached its peak in 2019 at 44%, coinciding with the lowest homeownership rate. Average rent prices have shown significant volatility over the years. In 2013, the average rent was $444, which decreased to $341 in 2015. However, there was a sharp increase to $670 in 2018, followed by a slight rise to $681 in 2019. Since then, average rent has stabilized somewhat, reaching $670 in 2022.

Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in Ashland for 2023 was $95,488, showing a continued upward trend. In 2024, the average home price further increased to $100,105, marking the first time it has surpassed the $100,000 mark. This represents a 4.8% increase from 2023 to 2024. Concurrently, the federal interest rate in 2024 stands at 5.33%, which is significantly higher than the rates seen in the previous decade.

Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in Ashland will continue to rise, albeit at a potentially slower rate due to higher interest rates. We project that by 2029, average home prices could reach approximately $120,000 to $125,000, assuming a more moderate annual growth rate of 3-4%. For rent prices, we expect a more stable trajectory, with potential increases to around $750-$800 per month by 2029, factoring in historical volatility and current market conditions.

In summary, Ashland has demonstrated resilience in its homeownership rates despite significant increases in average home prices. The recent surge in home values, coupled with rising interest rates, may present challenges for new buyers entering the market. However, the stability in homeownership rates suggests a strong community attachment and potentially favorable local economic conditions supporting homeownership. The rental market, while experiencing some volatility, has shown signs of stabilization in recent years, which may continue if housing affordability concerns persist.