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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Bay Terraces, a diverse suburban neighborhood in San Diego, California, has experienced significant changes in housing trends over the past decade. Despite substantial increases in home prices, the area has maintained relatively stable homeownership rates. This analysis examines the relationship between home values, ownership percentages, and rental trends in Bay Terraces from 2010 to 2024.
The correlation between homeownership rates and average home prices in Bay Terraces reveals an intriguing pattern. Average home prices rose dramatically from $222,175 in 2010 to $671,253 in 2022, a 202% increase. However, the percentage of owner-occupied homes remained relatively constant, increasing only slightly from 63% in 2013 to 64% in 2022. This stability in homeownership rates, despite rising prices, indicates a strong desire among residents to retain their homes in the area, possibly due to the neighborhood's desirable qualities or limited housing supply.
Federal interest rates have influenced homeownership trends in Bay Terraces. From 2010 to 2016, interest rates were historically low, ranging from 0.09% to 0.4%, and homeownership rates in Bay Terraces remained steady at around 62-63%. As interest rates rose from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), there was a slight decrease in homeownership to 62%. However, when interest rates dropped again in 2020 (0.38%) and 2021 (0.08%), homeownership rates increased back to 63%, demonstrating the impact of lower interest rates on home-buying decisions.
Rental trends in Bay Terraces have shown stability in the percentage of renter-occupied homes, ranging from 36% to 38% between 2013 and 2022. However, average rent prices have steadily increased over this period. In 2013, the average rent was $1,628, which rose to $1,750 by 2022, a 7.5% increase. Notably, there was a significant spike in average rent to $1,963 in 2021, before decreasing in 2022. This spike coincided with a slight population decrease from 33,462 in 2020 to 31,944 in 2021, which may have contributed to the temporary rent increase.
In 2023 and 2024, Bay Terraces continued to experience growth in average home prices. The average home price reached $688,310 in 2023 and further increased to $747,309 in 2024, representing an 8.6% year-over-year increase. This growth occurred despite rising interest rates, which reached 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, indicating strong demand for housing in the area.
Based on historical trends and current market conditions, average home prices in Bay Terraces are expected to continue their upward trajectory over the next five years. Assuming a conservative annual growth rate of 5%, average home prices could potentially reach around $953,000 by 2029. For average rent prices, considering a modest annual increase of 3%, we might see average rents climb to approximately $2,030 by 2029.
In conclusion, Bay Terraces has demonstrated remarkable resilience in its homeownership rates despite significant increases in average home prices. The neighborhood has maintained a stable balance between owner-occupied and renter-occupied homes, even as both average home prices and average rent prices have risen. The continued growth in housing values, even in the face of rising interest rates, suggests strong ongoing demand for homes in this San Diego neighborhood.