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Rising Home Values and Stable Ownership: Black River's Housing Market Trends
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Black River, located in New York state, is a small community with a rich history and a dynamic real estate market. Over the past decade, the village has experienced fluctuations in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local market conditions.
The homeownership rate in Black River has remained relatively stable, hovering around 67-70% between 2013 and 2022. During this period, average home prices have shown a consistent upward trend. In 2013, the average home price was $157,229, which steadily increased to $206,431 by 2022, representing a substantial 31% growth over nine years. This rise in home values appears to have had a minimal impact on homeownership rates, suggesting that residents have maintained their ability to purchase homes despite increasing prices.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in shaping homeownership trends in Black River. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were historically low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%), homeownership rates remained stable at around 67%. As interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 (1%) to 2019 (2.16%), there was a slight increase in homeownership, reaching 70% in 2019. This counterintuitive trend might be attributed to residents securing homes before further rate increases or other local economic factors.
Renter percentages in Black River have fluctuated between 30% and 35% from 2013 to 2022. Interestingly, average rent prices have shown considerable volatility during this period. In 2013, the average rent was $1,215, which peaked at $1,542 in 2018 before declining to $966 in 2022. This represents a 20.5% decrease in average rent prices over the decade, despite the village's population remaining relatively stable. The decrease in rent prices could be attributed to various factors, including changes in local housing supply or economic conditions affecting the rental market.
In 2023 and 2024, Black River has continued to see growth in average home prices. The average home price reached $215,718 in 2023 and further increased to $224,857 in 2024. This represents a 4.5% year-over-year increase from 2022 to 2023 and a 4.2% increase from 2023 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates have risen significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which may impact future homeownership trends.
Looking ahead, based on the historical data and current trends, we can project that average home prices in Black River will continue to rise over the next five years, albeit at a potentially slower rate due to higher interest rates. A conservative estimate suggests average home prices could reach around $250,000 to $270,000 by 2029. Average rent prices, which have been declining, may stabilize or see a modest increase as the housing market adjusts to higher interest rates, potentially reaching $1,100 to $1,200 by 2029.
In summary, Black River has demonstrated resilience in its housing market, with stable homeownership rates despite rising home prices. The recent decline in average rent prices, coupled with increasing home values, presents an interesting dynamic in the local real estate market. As interest rates continue to rise, it will be crucial to monitor how these factors influence homeownership rates and housing affordability in the coming years.
