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Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership in Zip Code 28303: A Decade of Housing Trends
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 28303, located in Fayetteville, North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices over the past decade. This area has seen a gradual shift from owner-occupied housing to a predominantly renter-occupied market, accompanied by fluctuations in both home values and rental costs.
The homeownership rate in zip code 28303 has shown a consistent downward trend since 2013. In 2013, 53% of housing units were owner-occupied. However, by 2022, this figure had dropped to 42%, representing a significant 11 percentage point decrease over nine years. Interestingly, this decline in homeownership coincided with a general upward trend in average home prices. The average home price in 2013 was $117,944, which initially decreased to a low of $110,229 in 2016 before rebounding and reaching $176,558 by 2022. This represents a substantial 49.7% increase in average home prices from 2013 to 2022, despite the declining rate of homeownership.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in this zip code appears to follow established trends. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were historically low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.40%), the homeownership rate still declined from 53% to 46%. This suggests that other factors, such as local economic conditions or demographic shifts, may have had a stronger influence on homeownership than interest rates alone. As interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, the homeownership rate continued its downward trend, reaching 42% in 2022.
Conversely, the percentage of renter-occupied housing units in zip code 28303 has steadily increased. In 2013, 47% of housing units were renter-occupied, but by 2022, this figure had risen to 58%, an 11 percentage point increase. This shift towards a renter-majority market has been accompanied by fluctuations in average rent prices. The average rent in 2013 was $969, which increased to $1,026 in 2019 before slightly decreasing to $1,017 in 2022. Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend shows a 4.95% increase in average rent from 2013 to 2022. The population in the zip code has also grown during this period, from 30,875 in 2013 to 33,136 in 2022, potentially contributing to the increased demand for rental properties.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in zip code 28303 continued its upward trajectory, reaching $197,825 in 2023 and further increasing to $207,373 in 2024. This represents a significant 17.5% increase from 2022 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates have risen sharply, from 1.68% in 2022 to 5.02% in 2023, and further to 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may impact affordability and could potentially influence future homeownership rates in the area.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in zip code 28303 will continue to rise, albeit at a potentially slower rate due to higher interest rates. Average home prices could reach approximately $240,000 to $250,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, potentially reaching $1,200 to $1,300 per month by 2029, driven by the continued trend towards renter-occupied housing and population growth in the area.
In summary, zip code 28303 has experienced a significant shift from owner-occupied to renter-occupied housing over the past decade, despite rising average home prices. This trend has been accompanied by moderate increases in average rent prices and a growing population. The recent sharp increase in interest rates, combined with rising home prices, may further impact homeownership rates in the coming years. The area appears to be transitioning towards a predominantly rental market, with both home values and rent prices expected to continue their upward trajectory in the near future.
