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Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership in Buffalo's Black Rock Neighborhood
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Loading Content...
Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Black Rock, a historic neighborhood in Buffalo, New York, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This analysis focuses on the trends in homeownership rates, average home values, and rental prices from 2013 to 2024. The homeownership rate in Black Rock has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 22% and 26% from 2013 to 2022. Despite this consistency in ownership rates, the neighborhood has seen a dramatic increase in average home prices. In 2013, the average home price was $31,356, which rose substantially to $106,466 by 2022, representing a 239% increase over nine years. This trend indicates a significant appreciation in property values while the proportion of homeowners remained relatively unchanged. Federal interest rates have played a role in shaping homeownership trends in Black Rock. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were exceptionally low (0.11% to 0.40%), the homeownership rate remained stable at around 24-26%. As interest rates rose more notably from 2017 (1.00%) to 2019 (2.16%), there was a slight increase in homeownership to 26% in 2019. However, the sharp drop in interest rates in 2020 (0.38%) and 2021 (0.08%) did not lead to an increase in homeownership, which actually decreased to 22% in 2020 before slightly recovering to 23% in 2021 and 2022.
The rental market in Black Rock has shown consistent trends. The percentage of renters has remained high, ranging from 74% to 78% between 2013 and 2022. Average rent prices have steadily increased from $630 in 2013 to $750 in 2022, a 19% increase. A significant jump in average rent occurred from $768 in 2020 to $844 in 2021, coinciding with a population increase from 7,056 to 7,637. This suggests that increased demand for housing in the area may have driven up rental prices.
In 2023, the average home price in Black Rock reached $107,219, with federal interest rates at 5.02%. Moving into 2024, the average home price has further increased to $116,592, while interest rates have slightly risen to 5.33%. This continued upward trend in home prices, despite higher interest rates, indicates strong demand and appreciation in the local real estate market.
Predictive models suggest that both average home prices and rent prices in Black Rock are likely to continue their upward trajectory over the next five years. Home prices are projected to increase by approximately 8-10% annually, potentially reaching around $170,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are expected to grow at a more moderate rate of 3-5% per year, potentially reaching $870-$900 by 2029.
In summary, Black Rock has experienced significant appreciation in home values over the past decade, with a relatively stable homeownership rate. The rental market remains dominant, with steadily increasing rent prices. Despite rising interest rates, the neighborhood's real estate market shows strong growth potential, likely driven by its desirable location and community attributes.
