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Rising Home Values and Ownership Trends in Shepard Boulevard, Columbia
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Shepard Boulevard, a neighborhood in Columbia, Missouri, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This analysis focuses on the trends in average home values, ownership rates, and unique market dynamics from 2013 to 2024. The neighborhood has seen a substantial increase in average home prices, while homeownership rates have slightly declined and rental prices have shown considerable volatility. From 2013 to 2022, Shepard Boulevard witnessed a notable increase in average home prices, rising from $170,586 to $281,407, representing a 65% growth over nine years. During the same period, the homeownership rate experienced a slight decrease, falling from 26% to 22%. This inverse relationship between rising home values and declining ownership rates suggests that the increasing property values may be creating challenges for residents transitioning from renting to owning. The impact of federal interest rates on homeownership trends in Shepard Boulevard has been complex. Between 2013 and 2016, when interest rates were exceptionally low (0.11% to 0.40%), the homeownership rate paradoxically decreased from 26% to 19%. This trend indicates that local factors may have outweighed the potential benefits of low interest rates. As interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, the homeownership rate stabilized around 22-23%, highlighting the intricate relationship between interest rates and local housing market dynamics.
The rental market in Shepard Boulevard has remained dominant, with the renter population increasing from 74% in 2013 to 78% in 2022. Average rent prices have exhibited significant fluctuations during this period. Starting at $628 in 2013, rents increased to $738 in 2015, then sharply declined to $385 in 2019 before surging to $876 in 2022. This represents a striking 127% increase in average rent from 2019 to 2022. These rent price fluctuations may be influenced by changes in housing supply, local economic conditions, and the neighborhood's growing population, which increased slightly from 6,139 in 2013 to 6,141 in 2022.
In 2023 and 2024, the housing market in Shepard Boulevard continued its upward trajectory. The average home price reached $297,841 in 2023 and further increased to $308,563 in 2024, representing a 3.6% year-over-year growth. This growth occurred despite the significant rise in federal interest rates, which stood at 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may impact affordability and potentially influence future homeownership rates in the neighborhood.
Based on historical trends and current market conditions, the following 5-year forecast can be made for Shepard Boulevard: 1. Average home prices are expected to continue their upward trajectory, albeit potentially at a slower rate due to higher interest rates. By 2029, average home prices may reach approximately $350,000 to $375,000. 2. Average rent prices, given their recent sharp increase and overall volatility, may stabilize or see more moderate growth. Projections suggest average rents could range from $950 to $1,100 by 2029, depending on local economic factors and housing supply.
In conclusion, Shepard Boulevard has experienced a significant increase in average home prices over the past decade, accompanied by a slight decrease in homeownership rates. The rental market has shown considerable volatility, with recent years seeing substantial increases in average rent prices. The neighborhood's housing market has demonstrated resilience, with home prices continuing to rise even in the face of increasing interest rates. These trends indicate a competitive and dynamic housing market in Shepard Boulevard, with potential challenges for affordability and homeownership in the coming years.
