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Rising Home Values and Ownership in Stevens: Lancaster's Dynamic Real Estate Market
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Stevens, a neighborhood in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, has experienced significant changes in its real estate market over the past decade. This area has seen notable shifts in homeownership rates and housing prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local market conditions. From 2013 to 2022, Stevens witnessed a remarkable increase in homeownership rates. In 2013, only 39% of residents owned their homes, but by 2022, this figure had risen dramatically to 56%. This upward trend in homeownership coincided with a substantial increase in average home prices. The average home price in Stevens more than doubled from $70,207 in 2013 to $159,511 in 2022, representing a 127% increase over nine years.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Stevens shows an interesting pattern. From 2013 to 2015, when interest rates were at historic lows (around 0.1%), homeownership actually decreased from 39% to 30%. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2016 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, homeownership rates in Stevens increased significantly, reaching 56% in 2022. This suggests that other local factors, such as economic growth or changes in housing supply, may have had a stronger influence on homeownership than interest rates alone.
Renter percentages in Stevens have followed an inverse trend to homeownership rates. In 2013, 61% of residents were renters, and this percentage peaked at 70% in 2015. However, by 2022, the renter percentage had decreased to 44%. Average rent prices have shown an overall upward trend, albeit with some fluctuations. In 2013, the average rent was $736, which increased to $1,023 by 2022, representing a 39% increase. Despite the decrease in renter percentage, rent prices continued to rise, possibly due to improvements in rental property quality or increased demand for the remaining rental units.
In 2023 and 2024, the Stevens neighborhood continued to see growth in average home prices. The average home price reached $169,346 in 2023 and further increased to $180,391 in 2024. This represents a 13.1% increase from 2022 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates rose significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which are the highest rates seen since 2007.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in Stevens will continue to rise, albeit at a potentially slower rate due to higher interest rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, we project that average home prices could reach approximately $220,000 to $240,000 by 2029. For rent prices, the upward trend is likely to continue, potentially reaching an average of $1,200 to $1,300 per month by 2029, assuming consistent economic growth and demand for rental properties in the area.
In summary, the Stevens neighborhood has experienced a significant shift towards homeownership in recent years, accompanied by substantial increases in both home prices and rent. Despite rising interest rates, the area has maintained strong growth in property values, suggesting a robust local real estate market. The coming years are likely to see continued, though possibly moderated, growth in both home prices and rents, reflecting the neighborhood's increasing desirability and economic development.
