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Rising Home Values and Declining Ownership: The Evolving Housing Market in Baltimore's Four by Four Neighborhood
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Loading Content...
Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Four by Four, a neighborhood in Baltimore, Maryland, has experienced significant changes in its housing market over the past decade. This area has seen a notable decline in homeownership rates since 2015, coupled with a remarkable increase in average home prices. The inverse relationship between these two factors suggests a shifting landscape in the neighborhood's real estate market. The homeownership rate in Four by Four peaked at 48% in 2015 but has since decreased to 36% by 2022. During this same period, average home prices more than tripled, rising from $29,630 in 2015 to $90,582 in 2022. This substantial increase in home prices may have contributed to the decline in homeownership, potentially making it more difficult for residents to purchase homes in the area. Federal interest rates have played a crucial role in shaping homeownership trends in Four by Four. From 2010 to 2015, when interest rates were historically low (ranging from 0.1% to 0.13%), homeownership rates increased from 38% in 2013 to 48% in 2015. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2016 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, homeownership rates declined. This trend aligns with the general principle that lower interest rates tend to encourage homeownership due to more affordable financing options.
As homeownership declined, the renter population in Four by Four grew. The percentage of renters increased from 52% in 2015 to 64% in 2022. During this period, average rent prices showed an overall upward trend, albeit with some fluctuations. The average rent rose from $1,284 in 2015 to $1,216 in 2022, with a peak of $1,442 in 2021. This increase in the renter population and rent prices occurred alongside a decrease in overall population, from 1,067 in 2015 to 812 in 2022, suggesting a shift in neighborhood demographics and housing preferences. In 2023 and 2024, the Four by Four neighborhood continued to experience changes in its housing market. The average home price in 2023 was $85,065, showing a slight decrease from the 2022 peak. However, in 2024, the average home price rebounded to $89,203. These fluctuations occurred against a backdrop of significantly higher federal interest rates, which rose to 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may continue to impact homeownership trends in the neighborhood.
Predictive models suggest that average home prices in Four by Four may continue their upward trajectory over the next five years, potentially reaching around $110,000 by 2029. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, possibly surpassing $1,500 per month within the same timeframe. These projections are based on historical trends and current market conditions. The most significant findings in Four by Four's housing market include the inverse relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices, the impact of federal interest rates on homeownership trends, and the overall increase in the renter population. The neighborhood has transformed from a balanced mix of owners and renters to a predominantly renter-occupied area, with average home prices more than tripling over the past decade. As the market continues to evolve, these trends are likely to shape the future of housing in Four by Four, potentially influencing community dynamics and real estate investment strategies in the coming years.
