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Rising Home Values and Declining Ownership: The Changing Landscape of Zip Code 14611 in Rochester, New York
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 14611, located in Rochester, New York, has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates and housing prices over the past decade. This area has seen a general trend of decreasing homeownership and increasing average home and rent prices, reflecting broader economic shifts and local market dynamics.
The homeownership rate in zip code 14611 has shown a consistent decline from 2013 to 2022. In 2013, the percentage of owner-occupied homes was 37%, but by 2022, this figure had dropped to 31%. This 6% decrease in homeownership coincided with a substantial increase in average home prices. In 2013, the average home price was $41,860, which more than doubled to $96,315 by 2022. This inverse relationship suggests that rising home prices may have made homeownership less attainable for residents in this area.
Federal interest rates have played a role in shaping homeownership trends in zip code 14611. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were historically low (ranging from 0.11% to 0.4%), the homeownership rate remained relatively stable, hovering around 34-35%. However, as interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, the homeownership rate declined to 31%. This trend aligns with the general economic principle that higher interest rates can make mortgages less affordable, potentially discouraging homeownership.
The renter population in zip code 14611 has increased as homeownership has declined. In 2013, 63% of housing units were renter-occupied, and this percentage grew to 69% by 2022. Concurrently, average rent prices have risen, though not as dramatically as home prices. The average rent increased from $835 in 2013 to $916 in 2022, representing a 9.7% increase over nine years. This growth in the renter population and rent prices occurred despite a slight overall population decrease from 17,425 in 2013 to 16,809 in 2022, suggesting a shift in housing preferences or affordability constraints in the area.
In 2023 and 2024, the housing market in zip code 14611 continued to evolve. The average home price in 2023 was $94,577, showing a slight decrease from 2022. However, in 2024, the average home price rebounded to $101,103, marking a new high for the area. This price increase occurred despite a significant rise in federal interest rates, which reached 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates could potentially impact future homeownership rates and housing affordability in the zip code.
Looking ahead, predictive models suggest that average home prices in zip code 14611 may continue to rise over the next five years, potentially reaching around $120,000 by 2029. This projection is based on the historical trend of increasing home values in the area, despite occasional fluctuations. Average rent prices are also expected to increase, potentially reaching approximately $1,100 per month by 2029, following the steady upward trend observed in recent years.
In summary, zip code 14611 has experienced a notable shift towards a renter-dominated housing market, with declining homeownership rates and rising average home and rent prices. The interplay between federal interest rates, housing affordability, and local economic factors has shaped these trends. As the area continues to evolve, it will be crucial to monitor how these housing dynamics impact the local community and economy in the coming years.
