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Rising Home Values and Declining Ownership: Lincoln Knolls' Evolving Housing Market
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Lincoln Knolls, a neighborhood in Youngstown, Ohio, has experienced significant changes in its housing market and demographic composition over the past decade. These shifts reflect broader economic trends and local market conditions, particularly in terms of homeownership rates and property values. The homeownership rate in Lincoln Knolls has declined since 2013, dropping from 71% to 63% in 2022. This 8 percentage point decrease indicates a gradual shift towards a more renter-oriented community. Notably, this decline in homeownership coincided with a substantial increase in average home prices. The average home price more than doubled from $22,824 in 2013 to $51,419 in 2022, suggesting that rising property values may have made homeownership less attainable for some residents.
Federal interest rates appear to have influenced the trend in homeownership rates. From 2013 to 2016, when interest rates were at historic lows (0.11% to 0.40%), homeownership rates remained relatively stable at around 70%. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, homeownership rates declined more sharply, falling to 63%. This correlation supports the notion that higher interest rates can make mortgages less affordable, potentially discouraging homeownership.
As homeownership decreased, the percentage of renters in Lincoln Knolls increased from 29% in 2013 to 37% in 2022. Despite this rise in renter population, average rent prices have shown only modest fluctuations. The average rent was $642 in 2013, peaked at $627 in 2015, and then decreased to $573 by 2022. This relatively stable rent market, despite increasing home values, suggests that rental properties may have become a more attractive option for residents facing higher barriers to homeownership.
In 2023 and 2024, the housing market in Lincoln Knolls continued to evolve. The average home price slightly decreased to $51,276 in 2023 but then rose to $53,017 in 2024. This recent uptick occurs against a backdrop of significantly higher federal interest rates, which reached 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These high interest rates may further impact homeownership trends in the neighborhood.
Looking ahead, predictive models suggest that average home prices in Lincoln Knolls may continue to rise moderately over the next five years, potentially reaching around $60,000 by 2029. However, this growth rate is expected to be slower than the rapid appreciation seen between 2020 and 2022. Average rent prices are projected to remain relatively stable, possibly increasing slightly to around $600 per month by 2029, assuming current economic conditions persist.
In summary, Lincoln Knolls has experienced a significant shift from homeownership to renting over the past decade, coinciding with substantial increases in property values. The interplay between federal interest rates, home prices, and rental market dynamics has reshaped the neighborhood's housing landscape. As the community continues to evolve, balancing affordable housing options with property value growth will likely remain a key challenge for local policymakers and residents alike.
